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This is a misleading blog title, Jim.
#dissapointed
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Sorry. I should have included the words “stock market”.
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Well the most volatile right now are Airline stocks, as folks will be hesitant to travel, and the Airlines are forced to cut routes off temporarily, and even park some planes --- which become non-revenue producing assets... Secondarily, stocks like UPS and FedEx are volatile because of the delays in getting product out of China, thus less freight to handle, less revenue, less profits...
The Airlines are all going up today, so I'd get in on Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, JetBlue...
All under valued anyways before the Corona Virus outbreak, and all 3 are very well run companies.
I also recommend getting in on FedEx, under valued, and can see them trading in the 200's in the 3rd or 4th quarter...
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I think the bottom is a ways off and the economy will take a hit. At some point companies are going to have to cut back and there will be lots of layoffs and BK's and reorganizations with companies that can't wait this out. Dominoes....The Fed cant fix this. About the only thing that will turn this around is the discovery of a vaccine or cure and even though it will probably be fast tracked it's going to take awhile for clinical trials. Once the virus info has settled down it's going to take awhile for the supply chains to get back to where they were and companies are going to be reporting crappy results.
I've been doing well shorting the SPY.
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ask nancy or gavin
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In Vegas, I'm sure tourism has been affected. Conventions are being cancelled and major players have cancelled out on attending some conventions. Not many people wearing surgical masks, but that may be because they're getting hard to come by. People are gouging on safety products like masks and hand sanitizers. Most all casinos have stations with free squirts of hand sanitizers throughout.
Vegas draws a lot of tourists from Asia and I'm sure those numbers are down.
In any case, probably a lot more worry and panic then need be.
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Well... this is almost impossible to predict. That last major crash we had was the 2008 financial crisis. Over a 9-12 month period, stocks lost around 45% of their value and didn't fully recover for 2-4 years depending on which stock/index you look at.
If this is more in the flavor of a "correction", whatever that means, we would expect a 10-15% drop.
Currently, markets are about 10-11% off their recent highs. So we're either almost done, or barely begun, depending on how bad you think things will get.
Cheers
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The bottom is impossible to call ... however the very moment they the new cases virtually cease will be in the near vicinity of the overall market .. it will probably start a climb back shortly before that based on predictions models. That being said DOMESTIC Casino stocks w/out Macau operations will rebound quickly with Sports Gambling (see PENN). A safe and relatively guaranteed way to get gains w/less timing is to just buy the S&P500 once you feel like the bottom is near.
Jobs report was awesome, manufacturing will need to be picked up by service industry, travel stocks are going to take a while in my opinion to come back if this lingers more than a couple more months.
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Down 12% is a free fall? LOL
Buy your fav ETF's at -10%, -20%, etc.
Average in, you don't have to be a genius
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If you are bottom fishing, check out the cruise line stocks. NCL and Carnival are down more than 50% from their 52 week high.
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i just got back from Vegas and it did seem slower at the tables. Don't know if it had to do with the virus but I did'nt see many Asian gamblers but I wasnt really paying attention. Some of the shows were emptier But lots of shoppers. Im headin back in two weeks so well see how if anything has been affected.
Peace
RD
P.s. Saw "Run" by Cirque du Soliel and I do not recommend it. ive always liked their other shows but we walked out on this one.
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| There are 11 comments on this blog. |
