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While the heat is coming, let’s not be lax about being careful how we interact with one another as the peak looms. It will get better over time, but if we are careless there is a good chance to get sick or worse before this is over.
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Well the good news I've been anti social and a shut in for years, so this is right up my alley...
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Yeah I'm keeping a distance as a newfound habit unless a few occasions just can't do so.
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If I go outside the sky will fall on me. That Chicken little story has scarred me for life.
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Good thing you are intelligent, those kind of fears usually turn people into Republicans
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I think a lot of people caught it dec-Jan already. I know a lot of people including myself experienced the symptoms for about a week or Lil more.
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As complicated as it is, its a wonder that the human body functions as well as it does.
Every week, NYT magazine has an article about someone with a rare disease and how they finally figured it out. Unfortunately, they don't always make it but most do. Pretty amazing stories.
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I think most people may have previously been exposed, and developed an immunity to the virus.
I believe the media, politicians, and celebrities are fostering hysteria.
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The idea is to slow the spread down so health facilities aren't overwhelmed and people can get the attention they may need.
I've read, I believe it might have been from analysts in the UK, that once the near term curve is flattened, we may move to a two months on, one month off type of situation, where we work for two months, then stay at home for one. Thinking this may go on through the end of next year or until we hopefully find a vaccine or a cure.
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Be wary... there is a lot of dangerous misinformation and unproven speculation. OP witler keeps doing this... hoping he is just clueless and not being malicious.
First, no one is proposing everyone in extended quarantine. Quarantine and stay inside/social distancing are very different.
The idea that heat will slow the spread is a hope, because influenza virus seems to behave like that. But this virus is much different than influenza, and there is no solid evidence either way yet, but seems to be leaning to heat will not slow it.
The idea that somehow LA is more spread out and that will slow the spread is wrong, stupid, and dangerous.
There is no conclusion yet whether being exposed or recovering from the virus will make you immune or prevent re-infection. Or if a vaccine is possible. That works for flu, but the coronavirus is more like a cold virus--and no matter how many times you catch a cold, you never get immune.
Also not clear after you recover, how contagious you might be.
Staying healthy and eating well and exercise is always good and multivitamins are cheap, and all can strengthen your immune system as well as make you more resilient if you do get sick. But the idea that vitamins will help prevent the virus spread is not true or they would be handing them out.
Bottom line: get your info from real authoritative sources and ignore HX bloggers (including me!)
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The first known case in the U.S. was in the State of Washington on January 20. The person came from Wuhan, China and he was 35 years old.
Doctors are uncertain if you'll develop immunity after you get it. There have been reports that people sent home from being treated for the virus (and recovering from it) in China and Italy subsequently fell ill again and some died.
Smokers are more susceptible to complications from the virus.
I spoke with a doctor yesterday who feels there is a genetic component to the virus; some people appear to be asymptomatic (suffering no symptoms) after being infected with it, yet some people appear to be predisposed to getting sick quickly and dying from it (we've all heard of the family in New Jersey that had 4 members who died from it).
I suggest reading the linked article, which describes an Olympic swimmer's experience with the coronavirus.
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Lol there's literally so much research out there for heat, vaccines, immunity, etc.
Nothing is a guarantee, but I gave my sources before which is levels up from none. Still haven't seen any sources from you.
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Yes there are definitely people who have died after being sent home as "recovered". Whether that counts as "reinfection" or "not fully recovered" is still up in the air. Likely that after catching the virus, you would develop at least some type of immunity.
If none of us could build immunity from this, then this virus would never die out and I would say there's no hope then. It would kill much more than 3-7% of the world population.
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let it go witler. Your posted sources did not back up, in some cases contradicted your wild ass speculations.
You don't understand how science and evidence works and seem to want your personal guesses to be taken as something real. They are not.
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One of the problems with speculation is that there is zero research out there on this virus and illness--it is too new.
There are some statistics that are vague, there has been some expert guesses and speculations--ands their speculations may be worth noting.
Yet experts often are changing and mostly have not formed any consensus because ideas differ and are evolving as understanding happens.
There have been no vaccines, no completed clinical trials, no peer-reviewed research published.
Calling any of this "evidence" is misleading at best
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This back ups JessicaTaylor's post. Which I was going to post but was first.
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A doctor I know just sent me this article with the caption "some hope"...
Remember, for this to end sooner than later, effective social distancing needs to happen.
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As mentioned by some on the thread, the OP is incorrect in his conclusions. This thread is not useful imo.
As mentioned by others, the primary goal of quarantine restrictions is not to eliminate the virus, although that would be nice. The primary goals are to minimize the amount of fatalities and catastrophic failures of the various healthcare systems until effective drug treatments and vaccines are on line. Both are extremely likely to happen in less than 18 months, with drug treatments much sooner.
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Cygne-
I didn’t have chance to thank you for your vaccine answer to my question in other blog. I had asked if it was necessary for America to reach 60-80% covid-19 infection and survival rate before a vaccine can be made from this “herd’s antibodies. You said no because that method is old school and we have more advanced tech/methods now. That’s encouraging.
However, if the old school method work, why can’t researchers extract globally from the pool of all the survivors of covid-19 to make a vaccine the old school way? Between China, Italy, SKorea, Iran, US, Japan, Germany, etc, there are probably thousands of covid 19 survivors we can draw antibodies from to make a vaccine.
Or is a virus vaccine highly geographically dependent?
For instance this year’s flu vaccine shots that US gave to prevent this year’s flu only works for the US but it won’t work in a China?
Hence, a covid-19 vaccine created by surviving Chinese population’s antibodies won’t work in America?
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Someone already knows what’s up! Moderna is starting Human Trials on its covid 19 vaccine. They must n is something we don’t know because they’re already starting to mass produce them. I’m still confused on the timeline but sounds like the govt estimated 12-18 months before vaccine is ready for public may have been cut in half IF all goes well.
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Cygne -
What I said "That can buy more time for more ventilators, masks, drugs that have shown to combat the virus well, flattening the curve, etc."
Everything you said, I already said.
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I'm not sure if you mean drug treatments are to happen sooner than 18 months, or will be longer than 18 months but sooner than a vaccine. But the US is receiving a bunch of treatment drugs as of now that have seemed to done well to combat the virus.
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happyguy63 -
These aren't even purely my words, these are sentiments expressed by other scientists in the other links.
Could they be wrong? Sure, but they probably have a better idea than all of us.
All the trends favor neutral or that they help, never harm. For instance higher temperatures, I've never seen any article that says higher temperatures will increase spread of the virus. Every article says higher temperatures will not an effect on spread, will slightly reduce spread, or will greatly reduce spread.
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Granite -
Very few cases of reinfection from what I read. We'd be seriously screwed if our bodies couldn't provide any immunity.
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I predict that we will all be back to work soon.
You can't destroy people's livelihood to save some lives.
This is not the bubonic plague.
We'll just have to take more precautions for awhile to slow
down the spreading of the virus.
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Like someone else said, I think there will be waves of openings and closings depending how packed hospitals get.
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If you are in a at risk age group or have underlying health conditions
Then allot of what the OP said makes sense.
My father is at risk, and a restaurant owner. It is very hard to make a decision right now with his health In mind.
If we open our restaurant to dining when the time comes and there is no vaccine
Will our older patrons and seniors who been with us 3 generations come dine in? Probably not.
SAME goes for my dad. Will he go out riskin his life?
Will U? Go to crowded areas, on trips thru airports etc
Knowing u can die?
Myself I'm young. Average health I presume. But im not trying to put my body thru that.
I read the virus can scar the lungs sigbnificantly.
More so what are we going to do to do
To get DISEASE THAT COMES FROM
WILD LIFE not intended for food out of black market places??
How are we gonna care for our live stock here better?
As a whole do we need to cut down our consumption of meat so there's not as many animals getting sick and spread disease?
20,000 people in USA died from Swine flu over 2 year span during the OBAMA ADMINISTRATION
how come we didn't understand it then. As we do now.
A flu is a flu
100k of ppl die from the seasonal flu
This is a good example to show we are in general to close to dense
I am a germaphobe I hate shaking hands and being around sick people. Why spread the germs?
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interesting profession for a germaphobe...
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The risk here is the overwhelming of our hospitals. The more slammed they get, the more deaths occur. Period.
But not just deaths from the virus.
How about if you have a heart attack at this time? Or a car accident? Or the dozens of other things that can kill you for which admittance to the ICU is absolutely necessary? We all will be screwed if we don't mobilize our resources and make sure that we flatten the curve with social distancing and proper hygiene.
Try to think on another level. Yes, you'll be out of work for a while, but the entire country and world is essentially out of work. We have no choice. But I do think we will get through this, we will not only survive but flourish after this.
Hopefully the government's assistance programs will help people though this with the least amount of pain.
Financial Tips:
On that note, if you're living paycheck-to-paycheck or if you're running low on cash, or if you know that you don't have enough cash to hold you over for 2 to 3 months, obviously preserve your cash as much as you can.
Talk to your landlords and ask them to delay payment until this mess is over. Landlords cannot evict you during this time.
And landlords/home owners should call your lenders to ask for a forbearance until this is over.
Concerning utilities, the LADWP (water, electricity, garbage) sent me a notice that they will forgive nonpayment and to disregard shutdown notices. Do not spend your money on frivolous things. Food and medicine are your number one priorities.
It will likely look grim during the next week or two with the projected increase in deaths. Just do your part in protecting society, keep your mood up by exercising/taking walks, and hope for the time when infections start decreasing. Hopefully that will be sooner than later. We will get through this.
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Lol obviously not, Trump is literally talking about business as usual despite viral concerns. So no more quarantines if the stock market can help it
It makes sense though, if you are a stockholder
From a purely top down matter of mid to long term economics. We have a virus that is really contagious to the point there is no apparent way to halt it other than locking down whole cities. The one thing they do know is the outcome, it infects a lot of people, but only really kills the retired and those who are immunocompromised or otherwise vulnerable. Both those groups dont really inject into the tax pool as much as they take from it. Finally we know that it takes a few weeks to recover from the 'rona.
I've seen a lot of Trump's efforts as playing dumb and underinvesting in testing so as to not be able to reveal true numbers and incite the population to panic and let shit happen for a little while. You push through as much man hours and production as you can allow so you don't look like you aren't trying to fix shit while the corona virus infection plays out. Take the extra deaths instead of the economic deaths (because corporations are ppl too) and come out the other side with less people who need your investment to take care of, a stronger economy and more money in the bank to do what you need to.
So don't be surprised if many grandmas and grandpas and the chronically ill are pushed to the wayside for MOAR profits, they are burden to taxes and society anyway, nevermind that this sickness also affects the young but...fukkit
Its cold AF lol but its a decision Trump has been doing. This two week test was him playing nice for the scientists and doctors and the bleeding heart poors...but now the shareholders in the room can't take seeing more imaginary zeros dissappear from their stock value so of course we are done
Sounds fucking terrible right? And this is the third month of a possible year long pandemic too
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The misinformation on here is annoying.
“Young people are going to contract the disease, a not-insignificant percentage of them are going to get very sick, and a smaller number will die. The rates of severe and deadly cases might not be nearly as high as the older generations that we are worried about, but the data already show that age alone does not make you invincible.” Linked Vox article.
A lot of younger people are going to suffer and die, but more older people are susceptible to it.
Businesses will not be allowed to open if it endangers society to a degree that it impacts our economy just as badly as the loss of income. There is a huge cost to having tens of thousands of people die. Not only the medical and healthcare bills, but people won’t buy things except for necessities during times of uncertainty. Demand rises when people are comfortable. They don’t buy new cars when there is a question about their health or the health of their loved ones.
This doesn’t just affect old people. Lots of 20 to 50 year olds will also suffer and die, just not at as great of a rate as older people.
If you see the police shut down a street, it is safe to assume something serious happened there.
When entire cities and countries shut down, resulting in trillions of dollars of lost income and value, you should know something really fucking bad is happening.
Again, I don’t blame anyone from being scared or uneasy during this strange time, but don’t try to minimize it to make yourself feel better and lull other people into believing it isn’t that bad. Take this seriously and we will get through this faster. Don’t and the pain will be prolonged.
Lastly, I don’t care what your political affiliation is, DON’T listen to Trump. He has an incentive to lie and minimize the impact of this mess. His re-election counts on a strong economy. But the idiot doesn’t recognize that he can’t just fake this away. This is a serious problem that requires extraordinary measures.
The death rate will be very, very bad in the next week or two. That’s when people will understand how truly bad this situation is.
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This blog is very interesting! Studies do show that viruses in general do calm down during hot temperatures and travel more when it rains. We will probably see a decline around late May.
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Well said, Granite.
You can't fix stupid...and there is a lot of stupid going on here! Criminy.
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Just some history. The Spanish flu of 1918 peaked in the summer. The flu had 3 waves around the world. As far as resistance or immunity after getting COVID-19 is news to me. What i have heard is getting antibodies from the plasma of people who have recovered from COVID-19. This is what was used in 1918. The next 2 weeks will show if we have done enough to slow this down. Good luck everyone.
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What?
First the Spanish!
Now the Chinese!
Damn foreigners!
Still gotta watch out for those people from Bubonica.
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If said H1N1 would you have known what i was typing about.? This flu is called COVID-19.
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Well said Granite?
There will always be people who enjoy arguing for the sake of argument. I went to grad school with those people. You argue strenuously with them back and forth, and in the end, they agree with you and claim that did all along but wanted to "test you."
It is just tiring to deal with bullshit like this at this point, but I'll address a couple points before I tune out.
People have criticized Trump for being warned back on January 20, when the first Amercian case was discovered in the State of Washington, that we needed to take this virus seriously. South Korea also had its first case on January 20, yet they mobilized and acted quickly to stop the spread of the virus. We did not. And now we are all suffering for acting so slowly.
Now Trump is saying that he will assess what is going on in a week and will try to lift restrictions on people's movement against the recommendations of nearly every medical expert.
As I mentioned in another blog, I know someone who works in the federal government in Washington DC who said he was warned more than 3 weeks before the travel restrictions not to travel. He said, and I quote:
"I did find it interesting that my work stopped all travel well before the CDC started discouraging it. It seems like they were trying to protect the economy more than they were the health of people."
There were reports that the CDC and Dr. Anthony Fauci urged Trump to act much sooner, but he refused. Now they are urging that Trump restrict movement through social distancing until the rate of infection subsides, which will likely be for at least two months, but now he's again suggesting that he will remove those restrictions sooner than later.
This is not a good situation. No one wants to have their movement restricted, the economy grind to a halt, and trillions of dollars in lost economic value experienced in this country and the world in general, but the consequences of allowing this to get worse than it already is is simply unconscionable.
Trump famously doesn't read and he isn't a critical thinker. Putting a crisis like this in his hands should worry everyone. The governors who have stepped up, namely of California, New York, Washington, Illinois, and Ohio, are all acting in the best interests of those they serve. Listen to them and see how they are different from Trump. It is embarrassingly obvious that Trump is in over his head.
Lastly, I am done with this conversation. I don't care what you think of what I wrote above; accept it or not. I'm not going to argue wirh anyone because it is a waste of time. But please, don't be irresponsible and tell people things that will result in actions against their own best interests and the best interests of society in general. We all have a civic duty to protect and support each other for the common good. Let's all wish for the best and hope it ends sooner than the projections.
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too funny 
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Granite,
First, I assumed you went to graduate school based on the way you structured your comments. But it was mostly argument and questioning with very little fact. It makes a discussion nearly impossible.
Second, I’m not a Democrat, I am independent. The only party affiliation I’ve ever had was as a Republican. I’d vote for a Republican presidential candidate again if I felt he or she actually gave a shit about society in general over the interests of big business. And I am a capitalist and a supporter of big business, just not through lobbying government officials at the expense of individuals.
Third, the entire world is in lockdown now. All of the world’s major economies are essentially at a standstill until this crisis is addressed. I dislike talk about unemployment and how it affects the economy when this is an extraordinary circumstance that is forcing a drop in demand. Once the virus is largely contained, demand will return quickly and the economy will also bounce back quickly. This is a macroeconomic event that isn’t centered here, so focusing on our economy now doesn’t make sense. It does make sense if all you care about is getting re-elected and you don’t foresee (or choose to ignore) the consequences of your actions.
Fourth, Congress needs to bail out individuals to hold them over until this crisis is over. Big business can borrow at low interest rates or can get some bailout but with a return to the government. After Obama’s TARP, which cost $787 billion, our government actually made a profit when it was paid back because the government took an interest in the companies they bailed out. Smaller businesses obviously need more aggressive help through specific programs that support their survival.
Lastly, my purpose in posting is not to prove how smart I am or to win an argument. What you think of me doesn’t affect me in any way. I post because I am worried about most of the people on this site. I’ve enjoyed this site for a long time and I hope it continues in the future unscathed by this crisis. There are a lot of desperate women on here who will do whatever it takes to make ends meet and there are a lot of people on here (both men and women) who have no clue what is really going on. That is a huge problem.
I am lucky enough to know a lot of medical professionals and people from many industries. The information I post is what I am hearing from them, not just my opinion. That is the reason why I don’t want to argue. There is no point in arguing if my purpose is to offer accurate information, but misinformation is harmful when it can result in the wider spread of the virus and the death of many people.
So much for not responding. Good luck to you and everyone we know and care about.
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We don’t have enough good data and good enough epidemiological models to be certain, as the Imperial College (UK) modeling tells us, that we should keep the country in a state where we oscillate between having sometimes more and sometimes fewer measures to keep socially distancing and school closures until we get a vaccine, but until we have better data and better models, we can’t rule it out either at this time. Better safe than see hundreds of thousands to millions of Americans die.
I’ve attached the Imperial College paper if you want to read it yourself.
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Everyone should watch the linked video of Boris Johnson telling the British public the truth about the Coronavirus and what they could do to stop its spread. This is an important video for everyone to see.
Now imagine how much better off the American public would be if we had a similarly serious address that actually addresses most of our concerns intelligently.
We are all in the same boat. Fighting this together with everyone else.
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Argue?……Well said granite?……Sheesh…talk about come across like a ideologue. I don't argue for sport. I only rely on real facts and data. Got my graduate degree….both degrees….from a real good science school. I know the difference between science and speculation....and especially stats and good science/engineering. And the math behind all of them. And no....a doc ain't the prez.
A “Republican”, from West Hollywood? That is dubious beyond all doubt, but, none the less, I will not doubt your stated political spectrum, but be skeptical. You have attempted rational dialogue on this “forum”, but…IMO…from a fractional and indefensible position.
I laugh at the critical thinker statements….and find them….critically lacking. He made his travel decisions weeks ago. In January. I don’t “Monday morning QBing’ much cuz none of the idiot talking heads have the responsibility of making the final call…nor do the docs or have forethought…and who don’t pay the salaries for the unemployed..at the time the decision has to be made. All their opinions need to be considered, but the President has to make the call….NOT them. Especially NOT them.
We will get by….and sooner than the taking heads say. Cuz sooner….rational heads have to prevail.
The flu kills orders of magnitude more people a day. TB even more than that.
..and here we are arguing over….stupid.
Wash your hands…keep your distance….stay home sick….this too, shall pass.
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NYC not looking good, hospitals almost full already over there
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