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And, here's the other side of the argument, posted on another blog.......
WSJ article by Professors of Medicine at Stanford University, headline today.......
(I included the link but you can't read the article without a subscription)
"Is Covid-19 as Deadly as They Say?"
Bottom line for these 2 doctors is................NO!
They go thru the actual statistics in population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the US.
Their analysis put the underestimates of actual cases to reported cases at between 30x to 130x in these various populations based on reliable reports by the various agencies involved.
Meaning that death rates promulgated in the popular media of 2 - 4% are 10x too high. There is a lot more to read in the article.......
Their last paragraph is as follows:
"A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns."
I don't have any idea if they're Dems or Reps and it doesn't fucking matter. This is their professional opinion that they stepped up with, leading with their faces in a public newspaper of high regard. This is not MY opinion so i don't want to hear your shit from either side of the aisle. I'm just the messenger here.
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There’s the discussion, and then there is reality.
Hi, I’m Dr. Doom. As most of you know today’s forecast is for another day of DOOM!!! Sometimes because innocent people don’t know they are infected, sometimes because even smart people miss something, sometimes because nature always wins, or sometimes because stupid people do stupid things and get innocents hurt. Because DOOOOOMMM!!!!
Seriously, this stopped being theoretical (or funny) for me once I found out the person who “handles” my money has it and will most likely not make it. So for everyone who argues that “well, this doctor says it’s not going to be so bad...”, I say bullshit. It’s bad enough now. It’s only going to get worse before it gets better.
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We already got gloom guy and doom guy, guess you're doom & gloom guy now.
still hoping you're guy pulls through
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Maybe you need to study how bad it has been before in order to get some perspective, see the link.
1 MILLION people DIE every year from Malaria but you don't give a fuck cause it doesn't happen to anyone you know, amirite?
Yes, it sucks when someone you know has it or dies and I sincerely hope that your guy makes it.
But the answer is not to throw all the experts out the window cause shit, they're all just "theoretical".
Those are all the guys we're depending on to figure this out, do the math, help us survive it AND NOT
FUCKING PANIC
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Watch Dr.Gregory Poland answers covid-19 questions.
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Modern medicine is the reason the death rate is as low as it is. Think of how far up shit creek we would be if we had 1918 medicine.
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Yep... 1918 medicine... and 1918 modes of communication.
2020... it hard for stuff to sneak up on us.
It’s like if chick on here has the herps. Word travels fast. Only a few of you guys would bring home the gift to your little woman.
Before widespread internet use.... and places like HX.... dem cankers would be oozin everywhere.
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"There’s the discussion, and then there is reality.
Hi, I’m Dr. Doom."
Damn it sherkahn, you are gloom guy, not Dr doom. Dude is doom!
Neither will ever be referred to as a Dr. 
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BTW.... not belittling S. Korea’s accomplishment of tamping down the spread....
But it is a wee bit easier to manage an area the size of Indiana and a population of about 50 million.... compared to 320 million over almost 4 million sq. miles.
Not to mention... we are a stubborn, selfish and rebellious people. S. Korean’s are more compliant by culture.
They say, “OK. Whatever is best.”
We say, “Fuck you! Make me!”
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^ very true....
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Appreciate the help on doom guy vs. gloom guy.
I get those two confused, their stories are too similar
They use to run with that dwarf crew?
Bashful, Grumpy, Sneezy, Sleepy and Dopey
Right?
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Yes they do..
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"How the Pandemic Will End"
I think this will change the way we interact with strangers for quite sometime. This shit or something like it or worst can return at anytime. Its seriously like a sci fi movie come to life. Today had the most people test positive till this point in LA County 149 new cases in the last 24 hours
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it will end when some politician decides it has. pretty simple
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We gotta surrender our civil liberties
For more survelliance via our gps on our phone
And we will know if we came in contact with someone
Also we only know ppl have it if it's
Reported and tested
I wish they told us who were sick and where they work
Etc
Then we could have taken it serious in the beginning when ppl realize they got sick from Someone who had it feom where they were
Could have known they needed to secure themselves
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Prince Charles and now Prime minister Boris Johnson have it....god save the Queen lol
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“We gotta surrender our civil liberties”
Never give the government something you want back.
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It will definitely end for each one of you when you die and I'd rather take my chances with the virus than the guvmint.
btw, which one is the queen, Charles or Boris?
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Surrender nothing!
Corona virus is easy to kill.
It's not new either. This strain may be new but this is an unnecessary panic. There are corona viruses who's haptens are more protected than a conventional virus and it looks like a halo. That's where Corona the name comes from. There has been a vaccine that prevents the coronavirus disease in dogs since the 1980's.
The conventional viruses have no protective halo and they die with the cell they invaded in due course.
Retroviruses are the worst of the viruses. They inject their genetic material into the nucleii of the host cells, take over production and become immortal tumor producers. Examples of retroviruses are Aids and Feline Leukemia. I was involved with the worlds first anti-cancer vaccine. At the time feline leukemia's research into producing a vaccine was going on, there were people saying we would never be able to make an effective vaccine because there were so many sub-types and it was mutating too fast. Same with Aids. Guess what? Those people were wrong just like they are now.
Why should anyone listen to me? Because my education is immunogenetics. Look it up. No one hardly knows what it is and people will say what? You're a Keebler elf or things like that. All good fun. Anyway, here's what a boarded internal medicine specialist just said about making sure the virus is wiped out of your environment.
Scott Weese, DVM, DVSc, DACVIM, :
Coronavirus is an envelope virus, it’s not very tough.” Unlike Parvovirus which is hard to kill and can live for years in the environment.”
Temperature changes, drying and things like that. Hydrogen Peroxide is a good choice. It has a relatively short contact time and holds up relatively well in the presence of organic material. It’s generally very safe. As with any disinfectants it’s important to get the concentration right. What we’re concerned with is contact surfaces killing. Hydrogen peroxide is safe and inexpensive.
If you or a family member has a compromised immune system that's when you get serious and concerned. Normal healthy people will look back on this and laugh at all the goofy things we're doing to each while we're stuck and bored at home.
Many will look back and see a financial calamity caused by politicians with little or no knowledge of what they were dealing with.
Our scientists will fix this problem I guarantee it.
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"Laugh at all the goofy things we're doing to each while we're stuck and bored at home."
There's a mother lode of humor in that line, lol
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The biggest problem w Coronavirus is that it’s higher death rate than flu and is overwhelming our hospital system. Many Americans trivialize coronavirus (3.5% death rate) w common flu (.1% death rate) as both fairly low so they re ok taking those kinds of odds to fight off c-virus on their own and not die so they can go about their lives and start working.
On an individual choice level, this bravado may make sense but from a macroscopic society level, your possibility of being another strain on the hospital system or another corpse to be picked up and incinerated is too costly to public health.
By doing just a little basic math, people will understand the need for Social Distancing and Quarantines in order to pace the strain on our hospital system. This may need to go on until a quick “antibiotic-like” treatment is found for coronavirus or a vaccine.
City of Los Angeles has about 4 mil people. The entire state of CA has only 7200 Intensive Care Units. Let’s assume that all the people in LA who died from both coronavirus and flu died in hospital ICU beds.
3.5% death rate covid19 x 4 mil population of LA = 140,000 minimum of grave coronavirus patients
0.1% death rate flu x 4 mil population of LA = 4000 minimum of grave flu patients
Remember that entire state of Ca has only 7200 ICU units.
Our hospital system can handle the flu because it’s death rate is burning a lot more slowly than the death rate for coronavirus. Also, most people w a bad flu can be treated and discharged from hospitals more quickly (same day) w antibiotics or other prescription medicine.
In contrast, seriously ill coronavirus patients hog up the ICU beds for weeks. (And I’m just using population of LA as example.)
I think this epidemic will end when researchers find a treatment against coronavirus as effective and quick as antibiotics are for most other illnesses. If we had a safe pill we could take to prevent or cure the pneumonia symptom, then covid19 wouldn’t be much of an issue anymore.
I think the President trying to lift the quarantine by Easter would turn our covid19 epidemic to be like Italy where the body count of infectious bodies is so high that family members are trapped w a rotting corpse for days or weeks before it can be taken to morgue to be incinerated. The govt has even temporarily banned funerals and services and mandate all coronavirus bodies to be incinerated.
Everyday I read about more and more experimental treatments or vaccines being tested or in clinical trials. I’m confident we ll have a breakthrough but we need to buy the researchers and hospitals more time.
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A couple things:
1. Both the infection rate and the death rate in the United Stares are being underreported.
2. Trump’s ego is going to result in a lot more deaths.
Earlier this week, I posted an article on the Stanford doctors who thought that the death rate would be less than estimated. It was sent to me by a doctor affiliated with Stanford, and that doctor told me to take that article with a grain of salt.
There are many assumptions those doctors make, but I suspect President Trumps sub-par response was not factored into the equation much. If we treat all those who are sick with Coronavirus adequately, in the ICU and with a respirator (when needed), then the death rate will be low (around 1% to 1.4%). But that is not happening here now. NYC and New Orleans are fucked. Too many cases too quickly, so the death rate is quickly rising. And other cities around the country, including Chicago and Detroit, appear to be following their lead. LA was doing well until yesterday, when the deaths shot up.
Bottom line: many Americans will die needlessly because the U.S. was slow to respond, because Trump ignored the warnings early on, and because he’s still hampering our ability to treat those who are sick. You should ask yourself why the Defense Powers Act was not used weeks ago. Bonehead’s main interest is corporate profits and getting re-elected, certainly not the health and safety of the American people.
Lastly, only an idiot would open up the country again by Easter. Even discussing it makes him look like a moron who doesn’t understand what is happening. And anyone who understands the situation and still supports Trump is also a moron.
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"And anyone who understands the situation and still supports Trump is also a moron."
👍👍
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Blu, you are more concerned about protecting trump, then you are about getting important information.
I didn't read all the other post. But what mildlyA says is accurate and useful.
A person like calling me a moron is a badge of courage.
Call me what ever the fuck you want.
I'm sure you'll be out in about for Easter since you are such a believer in trump.
Good luck to you.
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So you're claiming that the information I posted wasn't informative. Great.
This is not a typical political discussion where we can collegially share a difference of opinion. The consequences of misinformation during a pandemic is that more people will die needlessly.
The misinformation that is being disseminated by Trump, and those who blindly support him, is the problem here.
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^^^YES
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MostlyAnnoying2020 doing his usual partisan stupid stuff
Everybody knows the cases are under-reported but there is no evidence that deaths are under-reported in the US, since dead people are pretty easy to count. If, in fact, cases are under-reported and deaths are not, then the death rate is actually quite a bit lower than 3 - 4%. In fact, the actual rate in OC is around .4%, that's point 4% NOT 4%.
New York is significantly higher due to their OWN shitty government. Twenty something hospitals have closed in NYC over the last 2 decades, most in low-income communities due to financial duress amid increasing demand by low-income patients. Blame NY's miserly Medicaid program which reimburses providers far below the cost of care. Recall how Dems claimed that expanding Medicaid under the ACA would reduce emergency room visits? In fact, they've ticked up 3% since ACA expansion took effect in 2014 and 7% since 2010. When one hospital closes in that community, everybody flocks to the remaining open ones.
While expanding Medicaid enrollment, Mr. Cuomo in 2014 sought to rationalize costs with an $8 billion federal grant for putative payment reforms aimed at reducing ER visits. "Will it mean some hospital beds are reduced?" Mr. Coumo said at the time. "Yes, because that is the point of the exercise. You will have a decrease in beds.
There is plenty of blame to go around between both sides, Orange Man included along with all the rest of the usual suspect politicians always over-promising and under-delivering while picking our pockets to run it through the bureaucracy and dribble a little bit back to us.
We'll never likely know for sure the actual death rate since to be sure we would have to test EVERYBODY in the country, all 300 million+ since so many are asymptomatic. Ain't gonna happen.
I quoted the same Stanford docs from the WSJ article and their study included a number of countries besides the US, so pick what you want to make your case but don't make shit up just to make your partisan point.
Oh, and have a nice day.
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GBD dont feed the monkeys ... they neither desire or appreciate the fact that actions of those who they support are the very source of the detriment that they blame on others.
Much like legislation that LIMITS what resources a hospital can have. Seems like a stupid idea to me but I'm not a hospital administrator and damn sure am on the side of letting one provide as many ICU beds and respirators they want. By the way why were 2000 respirators sitting in a hospital while people are dying of this disease? Why is the Goverors of some states restricting the abilities of Drs. To prescribe medicines that have been shown to be life saving .... STIDIED or not who gives a shit!!!!! If it works why would you pass a death sentence on someone Mr. / Mrs. Governor (D).
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Here's a crazy idea.
Why don't we discontinue our interaction on this site til' the Trump Flu is eradicated?
Like after Nov 3.
Then we can all come out to play nakid in the streets. Full blown, all out debauchery.
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@GBD
It would be nice if you can focus on the issues that I actually raised, which you initially referenced from the Stanford researchers.
Both Democrats and Republicans allowed the disaster preparedness of our healthcare system to deteriorate. They are both to blame.
The purpose of my posting on this site lately is to give people accurate information as to what is actually happening now with this pandemic.
The governors of California, Washington, Illinois, New York, and Ohio are doing all they can to stop the spread of the virus and save lives.
Ohio's governor is Republican and he's excellent. He's acted quickly and he's made excellent decisions based on science and the facts of the situation. And he has been one of the most vocal on how crazy Trump has been in suggesting that this situation will be solved enough by Easter to lift the restrictions of the public's free movement in parts of the country.
It is too late for the U.S. to avert many, many deaths that could have been avoided. We acted too slowly and the death rate unfortunately will rise significantly. The lack of testing, the misstatement of the numbers of infected and the dead, will all be uncovered. Just look at what is happening in New Orleans and the shortage of PPEs all over the country.
I'd prefer to go back to discussing who gives the best BJs and who I'd like to see next, but I think it is important that we help each other to be safe in this unusual environment.
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^ That was pretty fair and balanced (if I can use those terms without some dick calling me a Fox News guy).
It's interesting that just lately Cuomo is thinking outside the box and exploring some ideas for getting people back to work and some semblance of normalcy.
There's a difficult tradeoff here between lives and economics. We all need to be more more aware of this and not just be partisan cock smokers.
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Trump went on Fox New a couple days ago and essentially said that governors who are nice to him will be helped out more than those who criticize him.
So when you hear Cuomo and Newsome thanking Trump for what he's done during this crisis, I see them doing so to make sure they get what they need out of him.
Unfortunately, Trump hasn't acted fast enough, allowing ir to spread, and the stimulus package isn't enough to hold this country over until the virus has subsided. Most countries are spending 15% of GDP, so there will likely need to be at least one more stimulus package passed in a couple months.
One thing that should reassure people is that jobless rates and economic output don't matter right now (hopefully the stimulus holds people over until the outbreak is over). Since the entire would is in the same boat, once this is over, demand will return and the economy will snap back quickly. But rushing back to work will prolong the outbreak and it will take longer to get out of this mess.
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State Governors are responsible for the emergency response capabilities of their state....the New Yorks of the world have no fucking money or spent it on stupid shit...so they passed when they could have beefed up supplies of ventilators, PPE, etc.
That isn't on the Federal government, that is on the state.....
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I love the blame game.
In this case there is plenty to go around.
I am sure Trump has made a few mistakes in dealing with the Corona virus and will make some more.
However so did Obama when he used up the strategic reserve of masks and other hospital equipment in 2009 and never bothered to replace it. (See attached)
So did Jerry Brown when he decided it was not worth the $6 million a year to maintain the California reserve of medical equipment that Arnold had created. (See Attached)
And I am sure there are a whole lot of other people who have contributed to our current problems.
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No doubt the "Political Class" fails us in a lot of ways and right now is trying to come out looking as good as possible with these sweeping bi-partisan stimulus packages. Its save your ass time in case you are on the record for cutting something that is needed now.
But it's human nature I get that... When you say I dont like it's personality (name the politician) or I like x because, you really are only basing that on a small amount of information that you have at your disposal. I look at politicians that have mostly never made better than 100k a year before going to Congress and then become Multi Millionaires and wonder incredulously why anyone votes for them. There are many on both sides ... what good have they done in your community? Have they proposed legislation backed legislation that helped you? If they aren't in the thick of it fighting for you you need to can there ass and do so next election. Vote for the least connected person on the ballot that you agree with, get those 6,7,8,9 term representatives outta there vote that 4 and 5 term Senator out .... they aren't that valuable and they aren't that smart either.
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Pandemic will end only 2 ways! Nationwide lockdown, or virus spreads and everyone recovers except the elderly (death). This partial stay at home shit is not gonna work peoples
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Can I play the blame game?
Who cut the CDC funding for our research against diseases like this one?
If you said Trump, you get toilet paper!
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The pandemic will not end immediately, but slowly.
Worse yet, doctors are saying that people who had rough episodes of the virus but survived have scarred lungs, and may not fare so well with the next bug the catch.
I heard an interview with one of the first doctor US doctors who was infected (and has recovered) that there are notable cases of permanent lung damage.
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It's clearly a wonderful bipartisan cluster-fuck, for sure. Trump's a weird fuckup but let's not forget to thank all the fuckups that preceded him.
Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News: Federal stockpile of N95 masks was depleted under Obama and never restocked
By Emma Colton
March 23, 2020 - 10:23 AM
The national shortage of N95 respirator masks can be traced back to 2009 after the H1N1 swine flu pandemic, when the Obama administration was advised to replenish a national stockpile but did not, according to reports from Bloomberg News and the Los Angeles Times.
The Trump administration is scrambling to replenish a stockpile of protective medical gear for healthcare workers and patients as the coronavirus sweeps across the nation. N95 respirator masks are one of the most needed medical supplies amid the outbreak.
The George W. Bush administration published the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza plan in 2005, which called on the federal government to distribute medical supplies from the Strategic National Stockpile governed by the Health and Human Services Department in the event of an outbreak
In 2009, the H1N1 outbreak hit the United States, leading to 274,304 hospitalizations, 12,469 deaths, and a depletion of N95 respirator masks.
A federally backed task force and a safety equipment organization both recommended to the Obama administration that the stockpile be replenished with the 100 million masks used after the H1N1 outbreak.
Charles Johnson, president of the International Safety Equipment Association, said that advice was never heeded.
“Our association is unaware of any major effort to restore the stockpile to cover that drawdown,” he said.
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My bad, it appears that I've repeated info already posted.
Like a dog, I will lick my own balls as penance.
And also because I can
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Good bye boomers
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Thank Allah I'm too old to be one of those, this may be an extinction event for those greedy bastards.
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There is plenty of blame for past administrations, including Obama’s, but the clown we have now has to deal with this mess and he hasn’t taken it seriously.
Remember that he wants to relax the social distancing in two weeks for Easter? Here are the numbers of infections over the past the prior two-week period (yes, get ready to shit your pants):
New York
March 14 400
March 27 44,000
California
March 14 200
March 27 4,000
Louisiana
March 14 33
March 27 3,700
Washington
March 14 400
March 27 3,000
Illinois
March 14 32
March 27 2,500
Florida
March 14 46
March 27 2,400
The rate of infection is accelerating. It will likely be at least a month before it starts to level off.
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#TrumpFlu
Interesting idea lol
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Since under-reporting is so bad, i wouldn't put much stock in those numbers.
There are some medical professionals who are saying it's quite possible that 25% of the gen pop have it or have had it.
Some of you who enjoy a good panic may want to commit ritual seppuku now so you won't catch the Covid later and I support your right to do so.
In fact, if I can help, let me know!
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The good news is Mayor Garcetti said they’re finding that 99.9% of people in LA have been following the stay at home orders. So maybe we have a chance to have the number of cases peak in April and see the case numbers get low in ten weeks from now.
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In the 14th century, the Bubonic Plague killed between 30-40% of the entire world population. I don’t think the corona virus will kill that many!
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^^^I dunno about the sky but more than 9, Italians had a lot of dirt fall on top of them recently.
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