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Night-Rider
OC, CA
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Interesting Presidential Prediction Model from the Guy Who Has Gotten It Right Since 1984.
Aug 7 2020 01:58AM more by Night-Rider
Tags: Current Events

Watch the video.

Polls are not predictors. They are snapshots.
What predicts elections are his 13 keys which are based more on performance of party in charge of White House than how well the campaigns are being run.

Attached Links
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/professor-allan-lichtman-predicts-winner-2020-presidential-relection-trump-biden/#x
      
There are 25 comments on this blog.
juliuscaesar1
City of Los Angeles, LA, CA
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since Jun 2 2018

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Aug 7 2020 01:59AM     link to this

Rather than watch the video,

can you just mix me a drink before last call???
Nacraman
Santa Barbara, Central Coast, CA
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since Feb 21 2009

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Aug 7 2020 02:28AM     link to this

Actually, he missed on 2000
GoBallsDeep
Fullerton, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 02:41AM     link to this

Did OP fuck up...............again?
As did JC
Bars are closed
Last call no longer exists
So, pour me one now!

NR?
So many unanswered questions
So many untenable positions
Go ahead and have one or five for the road.
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 03:05AM     link to this

The year 2000 is an asterisk because vote counting was ended by the Supreme Court.
Nacraman
Santa Barbara, Central Coast, CA
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Aug 7 2020 03:54AM     link to this

Sounds like a hanging Chad to me...
GoBallsDeep
Fullerton, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 04:28AM     link to this

Lol, that's a bullshit excuse.
It was ended because they determined that the count was finished and
Bush had more votes
If your guy predicted Gore
He was wrong

Fishy, you've run out of blithe answers
To the tough questions
Get back to work on your spreadsheets

InsearchofStarfish
Santa Ana, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 09:14AM     link to this

the dude definitely wants biden to win...hates trump....not matter how his 13 keys answered

been watching him since the 2016 election



yellowB2
Mission Viejo, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 10:08AM     link to this

He claims victory in 2000 because of the popular vote, he does not predict electoral votes.

There’s another professor whose model has been correct in all but two elections since 1912...he gives Trump a 91% chance of victory in November!
AFMadness
Inland Empire, CA
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Aug 7 2020 10:31AM     link to this

A better prediction is how the Electoral college votes.
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 11:02AM     link to this

He doesn't hate Trump. He chose him to win in 2016.

He doesn't pick popular vote anymore. He picks "the winners."
InsearchofStarfish
Santa Ana, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 12:02PM     link to this

listen to him talk...you can pick someone to win and not like them btw

I have been watching this dude for past few years

if you can't see it? you're blinded with TDS...which we already know about with your constant rooting for the other side of success and hope






KaiserSoce
CA
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Aug 7 2020 12:23PM     link to this

Who cares. We will know in 3 months.

I remember the writer of the Dilbert comic strip was on Bill Maher before the election in 16. He predicted Trump would win. He explained his reasoning (He wanted Hilary to win) They didn’t ridicule him. They let him have his say... but no one agreed with him.

I wonder what he is saying now.
KaiserSoce
CA
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Aug 7 2020 12:24PM     link to this

By the way... polls are predictors, until they are not LOL
InsearchofStarfish
Santa Ana, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 12:40PM     link to this

scott adams is a smart cookie
jazz51
Laguna Hills/Woods, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 12:56PM     link to this

The professor is in the Russian collusion camp......I might have to discount one 'key' due to that stupidity...
InsearchofStarfish
Santa Ana, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 01:03PM     link to this

if you are in that camp and still believe it...what do you have?

DMFsA





KaiserSoce
CA
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Aug 7 2020 01:40PM     link to this

Everyone wants a prediction. Smart people on one side or the other are going to be wrong.
InsearchofStarfish
Santa Ana, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 03:53PM     link to this

take a look at some polls that ask non-election questions...there are a few of them out there that tell a different story

remember, trump doesn't need 25% of the black vote...12-13% would be enough...not to mention the brown vote that is growing also

the left and biden have not fully disassociated themselves from the defund the police...lots of chances to speak out against the violence and destruction and they have remained mostly silent...have liberal leadership in those shit show areas.


trump has come out as the LAW and ORDER president


this is not perfect, but they add up to the other signs and clues














Attached Links
https://news.gallup.com/poll/316571/black-americans-police-retain-local-presence.aspx
PA970deep
Long Beach, LA, CA
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Aug 7 2020 05:18PM     link to this

I remember back in 2016 some polls had Trump and Clinton basically tied in red states like Utah, georgia, Texas and South Carolina. And this was late in the game and rachel maddow was so happy lol. We all know what happened next. A Trafalgar group poll came out and has Trump up in Texas by 6 points 49-43. Trafalgar was the only poll that correctly predicted a Trump win in Michigan and Pennsylvania. They also had a few other battleground states correctly. Back in June they had Trump up in Michigan by a point when every other poll had him down close to double digits. Some over 10 points. They had Trump up by 1 point in Wisconsin as well in late june and tied in Florida on July 4. Dont believe Politico, CNN, MSNBC, even fox news
InsearchofStarfish
Santa Ana, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 05:33PM     link to this

rice has a conservative son(trump loving)...that could be a great show on netflix

Attached Links
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/10/15/susan-rices-son-is-a-trump-loving-republican-he-says-a-stanford-classmate-assaulted-him-at-pro-kavanaugh-event/
InsearchofStarfish
Santa Ana, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 05:35PM     link to this

wrong thread
InsearchofStarfish
Santa Ana, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 05:46PM     link to this

biden black vote lagging behind HRC in 2016 election

trump won with only 8percent of it.

over the last year, there were thoughts that this was over 25 percent...they only need 12-13 percent for a lock

Attached Links
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/28/does-biden-have-problem-with-african-american-voters/
GoBallsDeep
Fullerton, OC, CA
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Aug 7 2020 09:44PM     link to this

Take out all the carriage returns
Save the internet, WorldAss!

C'mon man!
If you can’t figure out the difference between an elephant and a lion, I don’t know what the hell you're talking about.
oldbaldy69
Inland Empire, CA
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Aug 7 2020 10:27PM     link to this

I don't think I can vote for Trump, butt I sure as hell can't vote for Biden.

I am somewhat ashamed that in a country as large as ours that these are the choices we have. Disgusting!

I'll probably waste my vote on the Libertarian candidate again.

unless this virus shit is over - then I'll just go to vegas and get drunk
KaiserSoce
CA
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Aug 7 2020 11:24PM     link to this

Then bite the bullet and push the button for the Orange man.
There are 25 comments on this blog.