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I would say for right now I think the housing market is going up in spite of COVID-19. Although I suspect if the Republicans don’t somehow find a way to keep people from being evicted, foreclosed on, that the economy can really take a hit by the end of the year. Even though the Democrats want to do a bunch more I think they’re going to have to Meet the Republicans halfway. I bought a house in December 2019 for 475 and this summer similar models are going for 500,000.
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No inventory due to people pulling their house off the MLS
Who wants Covid infected buyers traipsing thru the house?
If we get a vaccine, things might return to normal but with rates at new lows below 3%
Your monthly mortgage payment is what people use to gauge how much they can buy, not the total price of the house.
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I think that market is over due for a correction.
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Looks new housing seems strong right now, I see lot's of framing happening (which is a good indication)
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From what I read, House sales are doing fine.
Rentals, not so much.
I keep hearing people are leaving CA, but don’t see much evidence of that.
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According to Zillow, my house went up nearly $2000 in the last 30 days.
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Working people are leaving CA while homeless from other states/countries are moving in at a higher rate.
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chuck.....all of the data points to the exodus
The only thing keeping the population numbers decent is the ongoing foreign immigration into the state.
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like was said. lower inventory because people are waiting because of the covid scare.
lower buying but because of lower inventory little bidding wars happen. That is if you don't overprice the house out of current asking market price range.
If you price out of range you get no interest and have to lower the cost.
home are selling quickly right now (It is in a sellers interest to keep the interest in the market and create bidding wars.)
overall forecasters are saying a 0.6% increase for prices in California for 2021.
30% of mortgages and rent not made since covid19 (plenty of stories on that on the web )
did these people get forbearance or deferments? (look that up if you don't know and are interested.)
what are the terms of these in each episode?)
The big factor that is not being talked about is the unemployment? 300,000 just in los angeles.
How will that effect prices if these people are evicted or received forbearance vs deferments. How many will not return to work and how long will the gov't cover them until they get evicted or foreclosed on? How can people maintain or create a demand for housing if they have no income.
With all the money printing will this matter with an inflated usd$?.
Remember with any market the price goes up if people want the product and goes down if they don't want to buy it.
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if you rely on "news" for your real estate data, you will be wrong every time. Ask an experienced real estate broker that is active.
btw, real esate brokers have never been busier with transactions....
Low inventory
really low interest rates
lots of buyers
equals
strong real estate market
But believe newspapers if you want....lol.
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as a real estate developer, the market in the socal area is strong now and in the near future.
interest rates are low. hard money financing is accessible and available. i can get a 4M line for 3%.
real estate is a better hedge than gold.
inventory remains very low and median prices high.
gentrification continues without pause as owners age and fear high code conforming upgrades and rennovations. all hvac require vent seal testing. many additions require fire sprinklers.
my sense is that most homes are purchased with cash with some to little financing. the future is less clear but everyone still needs a place to live.
landlords can afford to reduce rents and still be profitable renting $1000 per master suite or $1800 for a 2 bedroom apartment.
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$4m line at 3%?
I find that hard to believe unless you're putting $4m in an account just sitting there at the lender
That ain't hard money lending....which is more like 8 - 12%
In fact, what i see is that traditional lenders to builders for housing are disappearing.
If you're public, you can make it work
Private small builders are looking at the hedge fund guys who are replacing the traditional bank lenders..........those fuckers are leaving the home construction loan business.
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I'm just nursing my renters along, most are paying
But, i got friends who have large apartment complexes that haven't seen net cash flow in 4 months due to non-payers and rent/eviction freeze.
Fortunately, the lenders are working with them but at some point, the dance has to resume or the whole thing burns down
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Malls are cratering
If they got the money, guys like Brookfield, are remodeling for the new shopping experience with no anchor tenants
Forget Macy's, Bloomingdales, Nordy's
Think small Target, Trader Jones, discount sports retailers, etc.
Commercial office is probably fucked for an extended period of time, not sure if they'll ever come back.
Companies are all learning they don't need to pay for that shit and get better productivity out of their workforce at home with no commute.
Industrial will come out OK
It's a mess out there and a new paradigm is being created
Deal with it
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Residential housing is going to crash. Its not just a correction. Its going to crash due to several factors, mass exodus from CA to other states due to lower or zero property taxes. The job market has changed. WFH is going to be the norm for a lot of the middle class as many are in finance and tech. Many of the lower white collar and blue collar can't afford the housing due to unemployment or lowering of their hours. Even with the drop on mortgage rates, the dollar has also weakened so the actual purchasing power has dropped.
Another issue is the hostile attitude toward foreigners and foreign investors, in particular to South American and China. In CA, almost 30% real properties were purchased by the Chinese in recent years. Now, most of them don't or can't come over and their money can't leave or won't leave due to the hostile stance from Trump. Couple with the weakened and a foreseeable further weakening of the dollar, the housing market is going to tank in many areas.
The market in LA, or SGV or Irvine aren't going to change much. At most 10-15% drop. Inland Empire, WLA, SFV, most of OC are going to crash a bit. So just hoard cash or gold if you're looking to invest in residential properties. Commercial retail market is going to tank. Industrial, depends on who becomes President and how they handle with China.
Its all about China. If there is a tech cold war, just move out of CA. The Chinese just announced that all tech related enterprises will get certain tax deductions for the next 10 years. Semi-conductor related industries will be tax free for the next 3-10 years if they are designed, built and sold in China. That's all the tech you see in communications, phones, computers. So that means they won't buy from US even if we sell in the future. I can see a ton of US companies moving to China permanently to get that 10 year tax free deal. That's no more 25% tax on every dollar you make in China. You make all your keeps. Its a much better deal Trump gave to US companies 2 years ago. If someone was starting a tech startup, where do you think they will go?
That's about 50 billion gone each year from CA alone. You can thank Trump for this. He just started something he can't finish. And all Americans are going to pay for it.
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^^^^ LMAO
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Would you move your company to China and be subject to the CCP?
Remember, China is a communist nation that spies on all of its people. They have the worst human rights in the developed world and they force you to hand over your intellectual property to do business there.
I would never even dream of living in such a place.
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people may want to be selling their homes, investment and rental properties as well.
So there maybe just more inventory on the market.
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Didn't realize we had so many economists here.
Prognosticators.
Fortune tellers.
Or maybe just a bunch of idiots talking out their ass.
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It's not crashing right now, but it will in the future. There are lots of corrections and stipulations that are currently NOT being accounted for. But later on it will be a great time to buy but it'll suck to be you if you are banking all of your net worth on 1 home like a fool lol
First things off, if you do not have assets of any kind (and I'm not talking TnA ladies) well then you are going to be eff'ed from the massive inflation that is bound to bombard the poors and even the middle class in the next year or more. Living paycheck to paycheck is going to suck.
If you have assets and ESPECIALLY if you have a real estate that has gained substantial value right now, well make sure and buy more shit because the interest rates are ridiculously low and when inflation starts ruining people's live you will be ok because you'll be locked into rates that will be way less than what some dumb fukk is going to have to deal with in a few years.
Get those loans that only asset holders can get, rent out your properties to the poors and hopeful idiots hoping to make a living in our beautiful and bankrupt state and continue to get richer.
Also make sure and vote NO and that 54% tax increase for the rich
I also recommend moving to Texas if that happens lol
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It’s transitioning from a sellers market to a buyers market. This typically happens before prices drop/crash. Yes I’m in the industry to intelligently comment on this. Low interest rates are allowing people to refi and purchase. Meanwhile many people are leaving the state. As others have noted in this blog, the effects of business due to COVID will soon be effecting the housing market. Mass foreclosures will happen, prices will drop, homelessness will increase, and yes taxes will go up because we have a governor that will make it happen.
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 @ cgem
Everybody who can is moving their supply chain OUT of China
Nobody wants to be dependent on that asshole guvmint for anything
Like the guy said back in the 1970's
"Yeah, you can sell to the Chinese..........one time"
This shit has been going on for 50 years
This is how they operate even with their own people
They will sell you shit, even poison you and they don't care
Only if you're part of their extended family, will they not fuck you up
Maybe.........
The Chinese who've invested here, they're not going anywhere
This is their escape plan
You think it's bad here
Go live in China, then talk
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Just so I'm clear here
China could offer unlimited free blowjobs
And, companies are still relocating their supply chains
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+1 GBD
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^ now, I'm convinced I'm 100% wrong
Don't play mind games NR
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foreign cash buyers alone would probably prevent market in cali from crashing
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It’s going up.
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Hey Lovegun
just ran out of fx, lol
I'm reupping so will be a bit before i can get back to you
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thank you
I wish I had some points to give you
you can always tell a hypothetical story here or just share your view points. Idk how appropriate that would be?
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Perhaps it is just falling slower than the dollar?
Relative to Wall Street, Gold etc... it seems to be sliding?
What happens when mass unemployment catches up, leading to more handouts, weaker dollar, depression.
Things seem to be coming to a head, then the rulers got a lucky break and can now blame it all on Covid-19.
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| There are 30 comments on this blog. |
