I am really depressed tonight because I’ve changed my mind and think Trump will win. Strong personality is going to carry him. Biden is too much a wet noodle.
Frank Luntz is a fucking Psycho, The guy has a replica Oval Office and Lincoln bedroom in his house. WTF!!! How can you take anything this sick fuck says seriously!!!
Another interesting tidbit I found from a David Shor from Twitter:
"Post-MLK-assasination race riots reduced Democratic vote share in surrounding counties by 2%, which was enough to tip the 1968 election to Nixon. Non-violent protests *increase* Dem vote, mainly by encouraging warm elite discourse and media coverage. http://omarwasow.com/Protests_on_Voting.pdf."
Interesting thing is, this guy, David Shor got fired from his data science job for this "insensitive" tweet.
You shouldn't get fired if it's the truth. Telling truth is more important than being sensitive when you're reporting facts.
This is the abstract of the paper Shor listed in his tweet:
"How do stigmatized minorities advance agendas when confronted with hostile ma- jorities? Elite theories of influence posit marginal groups exert little power. I propose the concept of agenda seeding to describe how activists use methods like disruption to capture the attention of media and overcome political asymmetries. Further, I hypothesize protest tactics influence how news organizations frame demands. Evaluating black-led protests between 1960 and 1972, I find nonviolent activism, particularly when met with state or vigilante repression, drove media coverage, framing, Congressional speech and public opinion on civil rights. Counties proximate to nonviolent protests saw presidential Democratic vote share among whites increase 1.3-1.6%. Protester-initiated violence, by contrast, helped move news agendas, frames, elite discourse and public concern toward
“social control.” In 1968, using rainfall as an instrument, I find violent protests likely caused a 1.6-7.9% shift among whites towards Republicans and tipped the election. Elites may dominate political communication but hold no monopoly."
How does that relate to today? Well, we're seeing violence in the streets. Evidence points to that politically helping Trump and could tip the election like it did for Nixon in 1968. Not condoning violence. Just explaining what may happen politically.
It would be ironic if the bit of hard truth that got that data scientist fired came true again.
The betting odds may have changed because the big boys decided to hedge their bets considering what happened in 2016. I used to regularly bet on racehorses and if the odds on the favorite were unappealing I would look to put some money on a longshot even though I felt fairly certain that the favorite would win.
Hey USB, Your list doesn't mean shit. Just look at all the retaliatory actions Trump took against Chine because of the "China virus". Let's go over each action 1) _____ 2_____ 3____
Couple that with the great trade deal Trump cut with China. Remember that was a Hall of Fame deal by the master negotiator. China knows that Trump is a total patsy. They just don't like him because he sucks up more to Putin than to them.
I fucking hate Trump, racist cunt bastard, But I do think the fuckstick will win again, come on the best the dems can do is Biden/Harris we are fuck. Four more years of the fuckstir
I hope as in 2016, there were a lot of Trump voters who were laying low, because
they didn't want to be harassed, if it were known that they were voting for Trump.
Even with mail in voting, I hope that there is an announcement that Trump
has 270 electoral votes even before CA finished counting their ballots.
I would just love to laugh my ass off at all my Dem buddies who want Biden/Harris. Too many states with "too close too call," could be a nightmare with mail in ballots.
If the pecking order existed, why did Obama win the nomination in 2008? He was at the bottom of the pecking order. Clinton barely edged out Sanders in 2016 and if it wasn't for the superdelegates Sanders probably would have been the nominee. Since McGovern got destroyed in the 1972 election, the Democrats have been very wary of nominating anyone from the left wing of the party. Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Clinton, Gore and Hilary are all moderate Democrats. So, is Biden. It has nothing to do with being around for 50 years and everything to do with a party that is risk adverse. If the Republican candidate was anyone but Trump in 2016 they would have won in a landslide. Ditto for 2020.
And who gives a fuck about projections lol....Wisconsin riots may be the best thing that happened for Trump.
People are tired of the violence and Middle America ain't like the Coast where whatever Dem runs will win, those are the important States. Why Trump will lose total votes but very good chance of winning Electoral College (and NO faggots cannot change that, how it is).
Republicans want to keep funneling taxpayer money into the Trump organization. The Trump family is playing Republicans and conservatives are too stupid to realize they're being duped.
Not at all Triple S - they are designed to make certain people quite rich.
Juicy tidbit in Peter Baker's new book on Trump. Baker claims that when Trump was rushed to Walter Reed late last year it was an emergency visit and Pence was all set to take over as President. Baker doesn't have any info on the medical problem. I'm betting the Trumpster had a mini-stroke since they were getting ready to put him under. Explains why he had such problems walking down the steps at the Army-Navy game and has trouble getting out of a golf cart. Now, Biden may be cognitively impaired but Trump is a stroke waiting to happen. Just terrific - our two candidates are invalids.
Crane-Op - can you have your investigator buddies at Infowars check this story out. You know, the same ones that discovered Sandy Hook was a hoax. By the way, do the Sandy Hook kids still send you birthday cards?
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