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If Biden wins, it will be interesting to see if the DNC lets him be inaugurated before installing Harris.
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I dont think it's even possible that Biden could win this unless they install someone else in place and find a way to erase the obvious association between the DNC and Antifa/BLM... or the mass mailin ballot scam works.
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^1. What is the association between DNC and BLM. Where's your evidence?
2. Where's your evidence there 's going to be a "mass mailin in ballot scam?"
Biden is leading in nearly every poll in battleground states. It's going to take some effort for Trump to get ahead and win this.
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Going to donate some money to Biden's campaign today.
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It's been known for months now that when you donate to BLM the direct association is to ActBlue which is then linked to contributions towards top Democrat representatives...
Candice Owens pointed this out but then you probably dont like her.
Dems are fanning the flames of racism as thier primary money engine.
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On another blog within the last week someone posted a tweet from Kamala Harris asking for donations towards a fund used to post bail for those arrested during riots.
That is a blatant direct association between the VP candidate and the support of rioting, looting, and anarchy.
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Bigger issue is why is McCarthy going on 4th and 3 - tie the game fucker!
Seriously.
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If Sleepy Joe wins we are all fucked! Not in a good way...
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These attacks regarding Biden's age and mental state are practically the same ones the Dems made against Reagan in 1984. How did that work out? And present day Biden is probably a bit more coherent than Reagan was in 1984. Poll after poll is showing Trump losing relatively badly with seniors. It is a group he won in 2016. I gotta believe that part of the reason is that seniors dislike the type of junkyard criticism that the Russian_OP slings at every chance.
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@NPembresh - what exactly is an extremist liberal? That sounds like an oxymoron to me. You get that term from The Perfect-Moron (TPM). What I find utterly amusing is that the the right wing lunatics (RWL) and the white-knight in particular (TPM) would be screaming to kick Trump off this site for his very creepy (probably criminal) behavior to woman. What is the total number of women that have accused him of either rape, sexual assault or misconduct - 25?, 30?
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Where is Shirley Chisholm when we need her?
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@Quat. I'm trolling dude. Watching both sides mud slinging. As for extremists? Yeah there's extremists views in both ideological "groups" and even those might label the other more liberal or conservative than the other.
Anyway back to watching the ruckus.
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Paul Murray is an obscure radio host in Australia.
He never went to college, never published an article, has no credentials other than being picked up by Sky Australia after being boot from his AM
show.
Who gives a damn what this loser thinks?
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“Heard Mentally “! Need I say more! Mic 🎤 drop!
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1984 Biden wasn't as coherent as 1984 Reagan. Even Biden knows hes not going to be president if he wins. He called it the Harris-Biden administration lol. Bush lost the senior vote in 2000 yet won the presidency. He won them in 2004 54-46. Mccain won seniors 53-45 and got destroyed and Romney won them by an even bigger margin, 56-37, and got clobbered too. Trump won seniors 52-45 and managed to win the presidency despite a smaller percentage of seniors and a smaller margin as well. Bested both previous GOP nominees by 100 and 141 electoral votes despite the lesser percentage and margin. This will be an interesting election since both candidates are, so far, underperforming with key constituencies. Trump with seniors and biden with Hispanics and blacks.
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My mistake. Trump bested McCain by 133 electoral votes
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“Biden is leading in nearly every poll in battleground states. It's going to take some effort for Trump to get ahead and win this.“
Uhhhh many (if not most) Of the people who will vote for Trump are not rabid Trump supporters. They just think he is the best of the worst options. Because of that, they don’t participate in “polls.” They don’t want to have to justify their opinion or vote.
I would guess MAGA people are about 20% of the electorate. There is another 20% that are Republicans or just lean right... so Trump is their choice by default.
Probably about 15% of the voters love Joe (I haven’t met any yet) and 30% hate Trump.
This election is about that remaining 15%.... and they aren’t participating in the polls and their “margin of error” is complete bullshit.
The Dems fucked themselves with these riots, mass protests, calls to defund the police and shooting cops. Normal, working people believe things are pretty fucked up... but.... they want to go to work, live in a peaceful place and have some hope tomorrow will be better.
It will be close.... but I say the election breaks towards the big bad orange man.
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I know a lot of people that don’t like Trump, won’t use any energy defending Trump... but will still vote for him.
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Its not if, its when Joe Biden wins.
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Hillary Clinton attorney general, we will see who gets locked up. LOL
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"and they aren’t participating in the polls"
Polls are a random sample of the electorate. If they vote, they are participating in the polls.
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Things are getting tighter, I give you that, but Biden is still ahead in most battleground state polls.
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Your best argument to make is that a tightened poll with a 3% margin of error still leaves Trump with a minor but significant chance to be out on top. Take a 48-46 Monmoth University poll for Arizona with a 3% margin of error. This means there's a 95% chance that Biden's numbers are 51-45% and Trump's numbers are 49-43%. There is overlap, meaning there is some chance that Trump is out on top in terms of the actual population.
But what are the odds that Trump is out on top in enough of the populations from different states to win at this time? Probably not likely since Biden is still ahead in most polls.
So, your next best argument would be this is a snapshot of the electorate right now. Things could be different by the beginning of the November. And that is my biggest fear.
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For those who say Biden is leading in the polls.
How'd that work out for Hillary clinton last time around?
Trump supporters distrust the "Main stream media"
You think the pols are accurate this time around?
Hmmmm... ok.
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@KaiserSoce - you might be right about the "silent" Trump voters but I thing it is a questionable narrativ and nowhere near 20%. But, we will definitely find out in six weeks. The national 2016 polling was pretty accurate. I believe the polls had Clinton at +3 or 4% and she did win the popular vote by 3%. The pollsters took a beating because almost all of them had Clinton winning the Presidency but it was the state polls in MI, WI, and PA that were off, not by much since Trump only won all 3 states by less than 70,000 votes. If she had won those "blue wall" states she would have been President.
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I meant undecided at 15%.
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I don't see how Joe will be able to handle Trump during the first debate on Sep 29th.
It will be interesting to read the comments from the never Trumpers after the debate.
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I don't think either one will be particularly impressive. Trump is fantastic at his rallies but a debate is another story. A lot may depend on Chris Wallace and the questions he asks and whether he oontinually cuts off Biden and/or Trump when they begin to ramble or even goes so far as to question some responses. If Trump gets sidetracked into appealing too much to his base he may alienate the constituency - seniors- he probably needs to win the race. I expect for Trump to hammer away that Biden is a stooge of the radical left and for Biden to counter that Trump's management of the pandemic has been incompetent and to also bring up Trump's self-destructive statements to Woodward. I am sure that these themes will be repeated throughout the debate.
Prediction: Draw, both sides will claim their candidate did great but the general consensus will be how fucked we are to have these two candidates.
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It doesn’t seem like Biden is positioning himself as a “Leader.”
It’s the “out of control” candidate (Trump) vs the “completely controllable” candidate (Biden)
AOC believes “we can push Biden” where we want him. Both Biden and Harris ‘misspoke” this week and called it a “Harris administration.”
The contrast is one won’t listen to anyone and the other is being told what to do.
Quat, you mentioned WI, MI and PA. It looks like Joe is putting all of his eggs in the PA basket. It seems they have given up on Ohio... at least national campaign wise. Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida is where this race will be won and lost.
Politico (left leaning) wrote yesterday, the weak response to the unrest in Wisconsin by the Governor is hurting Biden badly. The Biden campaign is virtually non existent in MI. Money helps win campaigns but Bloomberg loudly announcing how much money he is pumping into Florida dulls the effect. Had he just done it... it would have been much more powerful. But his “big announcement” made it sound like Biden needs his help.
It seems outside of the “Trumpers” there aren’t a lot of people happy about voting for Trump... but a lot willing to vote for Trump.
Maybe I am wrong. But I see it playing out a lot like 2016.
Bill Maher quoted Stats the other night that Biden has to win by 6% in order to have a 50+% chance of winning the electoral college. He said, the Democrats are “whistling past the graveyard.”
Honestly, I don’t know what’s true but I do know the “right” wants to hear the “left” continually tout poll numbers about Joe’s lead. The less “urgency” on the left the better.
There is no impassioned groundswell for Joe.
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From Part Uno:
"The most danger of violence according to the FBI are from white supremists, who universally support Trump.
Get you facts straight. "
The most prominent white supremacist in the country is Richard Spencer. He endorsed Joe Biden. Try again.
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The battleground state polls may not have been the most accurate in 2016, but the good ones are supposed to be better this time around. FiveThirtyEight grades each poll when they write out the results. For the polls in battleground states that grade out well, Biden is almost always the winner.
I would expect that the polls that grade out well represent a good random sample of the voting population.
Again, the biggest threat to Biden is that the polls are a snapshot of today and not predictors of what the electorate will be like over the next month and a half.
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Its only coincidence that ACTBLUE collects money for both BLM AND funds Dems?
CMon Man!!!
"1. What is the association between DNC and BLM. Where's your evidence?
2. Where's your evidence there 's going to be a "mass mailin in ballot scam?"
Biden is leading in nearly every poll in battleground states. It's going to take some effort for Trump to get ahead and win this"
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"The battleground state polls may not have been the most accurate in 2016, but the good ones are supposed to be better this time around."
Like the Dr. Ferguson algorithm? Yeahhhhh I think they are both very suspect.
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| There are 33 comments on this blog. This blog is locked and no further comments are permitted. |
