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Night-Rider
OC, CA
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since Jul 23 2019

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Locked. No further comments permitted.Only 12% of OC residents have had COVID-19
Oct 12 2020 06:24PM more by Night-Rider
Tags: Orange County, Random (All tags)

New paper out today that took a random sample of OC residents between July and August shows that only 11.5% of people had COVID-19 at that time. After 4 or so months of prevalence of the disease in the OC.

This figure is 7 times greater than the total case statistic used by the county. So you have to figure that the vast majority of cases were asymptomatic.

If we assume that the seroprevalence is still 7 time greater than reported cumulative cases, we can extrapolate seroprevalence today. (This is a rough, back-of-the-envelope type calculation). There are 55,892 cases today (Oct 12), reported by the OC healthcare agency. 7 times that figure divided by an OC population of 3.2 million is 12.2%. So the estimated percentage of people who have had COVID is roughly 12.2% today. After 7 months prevalence of the disease.

Only 12.2% of the OC population having COVID-19 means that most people can still be infected by the virus that causes COVID-19. A LOOOONNNGGGG way to go if we want to get to the standard herd immunity values of 60-80%. Meaning trying to get to herd immunity (if that's even possible) without restricting social connectivity is likely a too-time-consuming and/or too-costly pipedream.
Attached Links
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.07.20208660v1?%253fcollection=
      
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RobBlakeFan
Yorba Linda, OC, CA
80 blogs/2160 comments
since Nov 21 2016

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Oct 12 2020 06:36PM     link to this

All that for herd immunity?
wunanddun
City of San Diego, San Diego, CA
21 blogs/1610 comments
since Dec 24 2013

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Oct 12 2020 06:36PM     link to this

YA THINK!!! WOW... wish someone had have said that before ..... Ohh wait....
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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since Jul 23 2019

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Oct 12 2020 06:45PM     link to this

This is new information. I think the first time we've actually estimated seroprevalence in the OC.
gilbert33
Fountain Valley, OC, CA
84 blogs/859 comments
since Feb 7 2012

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Oct 12 2020 07:03PM     link to this

A pig farmer gets Swine Flu then a bird with Avian Bird Flu sneezes on him and the catches Covid 19. The farmer being asymptomatic goes to visit his aunt in Sacramento. Win win.
wunanddun
City of San Diego, San Diego, CA
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since Dec 24 2013

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Oct 12 2020 07:03PM     link to this

You are probably one of those people that are surprised that the advertised fuel efficiency of your vehicle isn't what you actually experience.
wunanddun
City of San Diego, San Diego, CA
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since Dec 24 2013

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Oct 12 2020 07:18PM     link to this

Forgive me there is value in quantifying the rate of spread.... Im just trying to say that its pretty obvious that we are paying an extremely high price for the lockdown... When we have said it we were called insensitive simpletons who dint care if people dies and science deniers. Now what you are saying is just confirming our thoughts (from at least 2 months ago) on the matter.

There are people who take their pets with cancer in for chemotherapy, others would euthanize their beloved companion. Neither type of person is evil they are just dealing with things in a different manner.
BougieSavage
Thousand Oaks, Ventura, Central Coast, CA
40 blogs/1004 comments
since Jun 30 2020

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Oct 12 2020 07:31PM     link to this

I’m with euthanizing anyone with it.
BougieSavage
Thousand Oaks, Ventura, Central Coast, CA
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since Jun 30 2020

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Oct 12 2020 07:38PM     link to this

Twice
kuya_zoom
WY
51 blogs/670 comments
since Mar 31 2020

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Oct 12 2020 07:39PM     link to this

You have cooties
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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since Jul 23 2019

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Oct 12 2020 07:56PM     link to this

“I’m just trying to say that its pretty obvious that we are paying an extremely high price for the lockdown”

Going for herd immunity would have been very destructive and costly. It still would be. It might not even be attainable with people getting repeat infections and with immunity possibly not lasting for a long period of time.

The only sensible answer is vaccines. Repeated vaccines if necessary.
KaiserSoce
CA
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since Oct 2 2017

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Oct 12 2020 08:07PM     link to this

Well... I guess this means we just have to hope more Orange Countians get it.
InsearchofStarfish
Santa Ana, OC, CA
741 blogs/13135 comments
since Nov 17 2008

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Oct 12 2020 08:07PM     link to this

I think they are trying to make a vaccine asap?

BougieSavage
Thousand Oaks, Ventura, Central Coast, CA
40 blogs/1004 comments
since Jun 30 2020

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Oct 12 2020 09:18PM     link to this

not only cooties
Attached Pictures
jackrabbit33
La Jolla, San Diego, CA
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since May 14 2012

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Oct 12 2020 09:34PM     link to this

So now the WHO is stressing that lockdowns ARE NOT a good idea in dealing with COVID-19 and opting towards making and social distancing.

The economic and psychological impacts of lockdowns are enormous.

It would seem lockdowns just delay the path to herd immunity and fucks up a whole lot of other shit along the way.

jackrabbit33
La Jolla, San Diego, CA
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since May 14 2012

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Oct 12 2020 09:34PM     link to this

*masking
kuya_zoom
WY
51 blogs/670 comments
since Mar 31 2020

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Oct 12 2020 09:48PM     link to this

And a bidet
Night-Rider
OC, CA
71 blogs/5312 comments
since Jul 23 2019

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Oct 12 2020 09:50PM     link to this

I don't understand how people can look at the fact we're at 12% seroprevalence and come away with the notion that we simply need to have more people get it. That's simply nuts. The whole point of the lockdowns and masks and social distancing is to prevent people from spreading COVID due to the destructive effects on vulnerable populations and on hospital overcrowding. Not to mention the unknown long-term effects COVID may have on the brain, lungs, heart, and kidneys.

A 12% seroprevalence does NOT mean we need more people to get it. It means that trying to get to 60-80% herd immunity from this point will likely have a destructive impact on the community since so few people have had it so far. The potential for a lot of harm is great!

The answer lies with a vaccine. And if people do get reinfected, then the answer lies with repeated vaccines.
jackrabbit33
La Jolla, San Diego, CA
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since May 14 2012

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Oct 12 2020 09:58PM     link to this

Good thing the president is pushing on multiple vaccines being developed.
Night-Rider
OC, CA
71 blogs/5312 comments
since Jul 23 2019

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Oct 12 2020 10:00PM     link to this

^Yes! The President's investment in vaccines and in monoclonal antibodies -- treatments that can get us back to living again like in 2019 -- has been excellent!
KaiserSoce
CA
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since Oct 2 2017

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Oct 12 2020 10:03PM     link to this

I guess I should have used the the sarcasm emoji. 😏
Night-Rider
OC, CA
71 blogs/5312 comments
since Jul 23 2019

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Oct 12 2020 10:07PM     link to this

^I guess I need to become less defensive.
NPembrush
Lake Forest, OC, CA
50 blogs/1338 comments
since Jul 19 2018

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Oct 12 2020 10:07PM     link to this

I have never met Bougie so I cannot say if she has cooties, roids or rona. I do surmise she has coochie though.
GoBallsDeep
Fullerton, OC, CA
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since Dec 12 2019

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Oct 12 2020 10:19PM     link to this

Why does OP idiot continue to post this kind of tripe?
Click bait or do u actually believe you're telling us something useful?
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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since Jul 23 2019

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Oct 12 2020 10:38PM     link to this

^Go back into your cave, moron.
Rahcrener
San Fernando, SFV, LA, CA
34 blogs/1582 comments
since Sep 27 2020

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Oct 12 2020 10:39PM     link to this

Amy Klobuchar's powerful message to American citizens regarding Barrett Supreme Court confirmation hearing (ACA, Roe vs Wade etc..), calling this proceeding a sham (and that is the truth)
Attached Links
Sen Amy Klobuchar's full opening statement
AFMadness
Inland Empire, CA
264 blogs/5900 comments
since Aug 17 2009

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Oct 12 2020 11:32PM     link to this

Perhaps all the people out for the Lake Celebration will once and for all prove a hoax.

And BTW, Vac's are over rated.
rakuen.now
Hacienda Heights, SGV, LA, CA
5 blogs/327 comments
since Jul 1 2008

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Oct 12 2020 11:37PM     link to this

Dr. David Nabarro of the WHO said that the proper Covid-19 response would require "high level of organization by governments and remarkable degree of engagement of people" with robust infectious disease control services or public health. He emphasized on combining of several measures such as "physical distancing , face protection, hygiene, isolating the ill and protecting the vulnerable" as an effective method. (https://pandemic.internationalsos.com/reports/who-official-states-lockdown-policies-not-helpful-to-public-health-oct-11-2020)

Funny how Fox News is saying that he is against lock downs, but continues to encourage conditions that are in direct contradiction to WHO's recommendations. We don't have the government leadership that promotes physical distancing and masks, and our people don't take it seriously either. Fox News said the lock downs should be a last resort only (https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-coronavirus-lockdowns-economic-damage), but that is exactly what it is, because President Trump, Fox News opinions hosts, and the American people have failed on the first and second lines of defense. You guys are causing the lock downs. If we took this more seriously, we could have actually followed WHO guidelines.
Night-Rider
OC, CA
71 blogs/5312 comments
since Jul 23 2019

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Oct 12 2020 11:45PM     link to this

"And BTW, Vac's are over rated."

Without vaccines, smallpox would never have been eradicated. Measles, mumps, ruebella, polio, tetanus, whooping cough, mumps, chickenpox, and diptheria -- gone from our daily lives (unless idiots like you decide not to vaccinate themselves).

KaiserSoce
CA
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since Oct 2 2017

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Oct 13 2020 07:29AM     link to this

Why are you so angry?
Tatiana36dd
NC
98 blogs/874 comments
since Feb 4 2012

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Oct 13 2020 10:23AM     link to this

I will calm that anger. I will throw all the angry right to the table or bed and just go to town with my straps and tell what a little biatch they are while I go to town. They usually calm down real quick!
Grumpy_Butthead
NM
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since Jan 30 2016

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Oct 13 2020 11:23AM     link to this

Send me a memo on how mankind does with mother nature.

We always do such a great job at running the planet.

In my opinion the virus will run its course and it will take a heavy toll.

By the end of 2022 it will be gone and a lot of us will be gone also.

We are not gonna change much of anything.
Night-Rider
OC, CA
71 blogs/5312 comments
since Jul 23 2019

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Oct 13 2020 12:51PM     link to this

^And you think the "mainstream media" conveniently ignores information? LOL. Those videos ignore a lot of pertinent information.

Like all the papers where scientists calculate the infection fatality rate to be significantly greater than that of the flu. Not back-of-the-envelope calculations.

Like we really didn't have a true full lockdown since our economy was functioning at 50%. And this is why during the "lockdowns" that infections were still propagated.

But go on with your propaganda if it makes you feel better about life...
GoBallsDeep
Fullerton, OC, CA
152 blogs/11237 comments
since Dec 12 2019

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Oct 13 2020 02:31PM     link to this

^Go back into your cave, moron."

Dude, you're an idiot, you've been wrong about so much of this that it's an embarrassment every time you post.

Europeans experiencing another surge meanwhile protests against restrictions/lockdowns popping up everywhere. I guess they didn't follow @NR's rules of covid

700,000 new cases in 1 week, 34% higher than previous..........show us those graphs again

New infections at highest weekly level since the start of the pandemic

Still think you know how it's spread and who's got it?

Fucking moron, NR............always talking out your ass
flash911
SFV, LA, CA
44 blogs/1324 comments
since Jul 23 2009

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Oct 13 2020 03:20PM     link to this

Let's see ....

99.7% overall survival rate
Average age of death in US 78 = average age of CV19 death 78
Hospitalization rate dropping nationally
Mortality rate dropping nationally
Actual single morbidity = 6% of all cases

The virus is REAL.

The numbers are FAKE.

One day this will all get flushed out.

No need to cuss me out NR. I'm good.

Peace,
flash911
SFV, LA, CA
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Oct 13 2020 03:24PM     link to this

Oh, and US Death rate has not gone up 200k since this pandemic started. It is the same as it was with an incremental perchance uptick year over year for the last four years due to population growth.

Don't let the media, Dems or NR scare you.
Night-Rider
OC, CA
71 blogs/5312 comments
since Jul 23 2019

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Oct 13 2020 05:58PM     link to this

"700,000 new cases in 1 week, 34% higher than previous..........show us those graphs again

New infections at highest weekly level since the start of the pandemic

Still think you know how it's spread and who's got it?"

That's because transmission has increased because things have been opening up, stupid.

It's not nuclear physics.
Gooners
Costa Mesa, OC, CA
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since Aug 1 2016

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Oct 13 2020 06:16PM     link to this

I'm surprise not more idiots are catching this crap. Sucks Natural selections is not doing its job
Night-Rider
OC, CA
71 blogs/5312 comments
since Jul 23 2019

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Oct 13 2020 06:20PM     link to this

"99.7% overall survival rate
Average age of death in US 78 = average age of CV19 death 78
Hospitalization rate dropping nationally
Mortality rate dropping nationally
Actual single morbidity = 6% of all cases
Oh, and US Death rate has not gone up 200k since this pandemic started. It is the same as it was with an incremental perchance uptick year over year for the last four years due to population growth."


A 99.7% survival rate is misleading because if everyone in the US still gets it that means about a million people are going to die. That's ok with you?

The median age may be 78 years old but that figure has significant variance (IQR = 67–87 years). So that's ok to let people die because they are old? They don't deserve to live out their lives anymore? And don't forget the unknown long-term damage Covid-19 has on the heart, lungs, kidneys, and brain in about 10% of people who come down with symptoms. A lot of younger people here too.

Hospital rates are actually INCREASING nationally. You are fast and loose with the facts. Check out the Covid Tracking report to see this.

Mortality rate was dropping months ago because younger people were the ones getting Covid-19. It may have dropped slightly because treatments are getting better. Thank the scientists and doctors that you covid deniers criticize!

If COVID-19 DIDN'T happen, the 200,000+ deaths WOULDN'T HAVE HAPPENED. They happened because of this virus. And likely many more are to come, unfortunately BECAUSE OF THIS VIRUS.
And many more would have occurred if we didn't have the lockdowns and restrictions.







Night-Rider
OC, CA
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Oct 13 2020 06:39PM     link to this

COVID-19 is popping up in Europe because Europe opened up significantly a few months ago and left itself vulnerable to a second wave because it isn't close to herd immunity.
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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Oct 13 2020 06:40PM     link to this

This isn't nuclear physics, but what makes it hard is all the deniers and people who want to just wish it away, because they go against the simple strategies that will contain the virus until we vaccinate the population.
Grumpy_Butthead
NM
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Oct 13 2020 06:42PM     link to this

Geez stop stackin and get a chill on
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