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Haven't looked at this site but managing by model, especially ones with very imperfect data inputs, is as dangerous as the virus.
The country is basically on lockdown, millions out of work, etc etc based on a few models
There WILL be huge increases in domestic violence and suicides, already happening.
You might survive the virus only to be homeless, no job, no spouse, and a Mad Max world to look forward to.
Now for the bad news..........
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Maybe it's better to be killed by your spouse or yourself rather than some shitty ass virus?
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My point is cases are going to peak in April. You don't need a fancy model to see that. Why put yourself out there during the highest risk period?
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If people are doing what they are supposed to it will peak much later than that. If you want it over with sooner, get out there and mingle. Pick your poison, over sooner or least people killed.
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On a long enough timeline, the mortality rate is 100%.
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No, if people social distance, it's going to peak this month.
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Peak in what?
Number of cases?
Number of deaths?
% growth rate peak?
Makes a big difference.
In OC, we already peaked in % growth rate. Meaning it's heading to zero. It's possible to get a higher body count on a day that growth is positive but dropping. As long as though there's no reramp back up, then its essentially over. OC growth rates were in the 30%, then 20%, now 9% confirmed case growth and 14% death growth over the last rolling 24 hour period.
Dropping growth rate leads to eventual peak in growth itself which is your peak in cases and/or deaths. One of you math geeks could probably calculate the first order partial derivative but bottom line is that OC may be closer than you think.
But don't throw a party and invite a hundred friends over for wife swapping, k?
Yet
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My two cents: Some people do need the intimacy and interaction of another person can offer. Isolation can cause long term psych effects. Just look at prison mental deterioration.
So long as everyone is safe and people understand the risks and care enough for that other person to take all the right precautions, then go live life. Don’t do something stupid. And don’t get too desperate that you take crazier risks to overcompensate.
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So it's ok to goballsdeep?
with a cover.
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Clearly, if you looked at the data I sited, I was referring to peak cases and deaths, which both occur roughly the same time in mid April. And the number of cases and deaths projected in April are much higher than at any other time, making April the most dangerous time to be around others—highest probability to get sick.
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Some of the recent information is showing that the social distancing is slowing the spread of the virus. Slowing the spread is fantastic but in no way does it eradicate the virus. It helps the healthcare system be able to hopefully handle the number of positive cases while new testing sources are being created and a vaccine is being worked on. There still will be a large number of people that get the virus over time anyway. So to minimize you chances of catching it, the mask and gloves and distancing should be part of your life from now on for some time to come. There is a very big problem once the spread goes down, it can be like a fire and it can rekindle back again quickly in certain areas, cities and communities. Pockets of virus ares.
One problem with this communities is there any many people here that aren't following the recommendations for what ever reasons they many have. This can be a problem now and in the near future. The virus can linger in a community like this long after the stay at home order is relinquished.
Bottomline the risk of catching the virus here could be greater than the community at large because of people not following the rules and people coming in close or intimate contact with each other.
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The probability of catching the virus will be greatest when there are the most number of cases. Which is in April.
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Thats why social distancing at this time is seriously important!
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Yes, sir!
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It will not go down to zero anytime soon! We don’t have a Vaccine yet even if we did, like the flu vaccine we will still have people dying every year . This will not subside soon!
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I’m not saying the problem will go away. As others have pointed out, the virus will hang around and be a problem until we gat a vaccine. All I’m saying is consider not meeting up in April when we’re going to have by far the highest number of cases. This number will become low (but not zero) by mid May.
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Thank you for the link. It is an interesting chart.
If you extrapolate their numbers you get a death rate of .75% calculated as follows:
For the US they are assuming total deaths of 81,766 by the end of the first wave. They are assuming that as of the end of the first wave of the epidemic that 97% of the population of the U.S. will still be susceptible to the virus. If you assume that the population of the US is about 340 million then it would mean 329 million are still vulnerable and 11 million have been exposed. If you divide 81,766 by 11 million you get approximately .75% as the death rate.
Of course if you end up with 200 million exposed with a .75% death rate then you would have 1.5 million dead.
Of course like anything else it is just an estimate at this point in time.
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News said Cases are to peak in California Early May
Night_ryder model is probably based of the US not California.
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 now seeking arrangements
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Gavin Newsome’s team still does predict a peak in May.
My recommendation still stands, because the problem of having a relatively high number of cases occurs not just at the peak, but during weeks before and after the peak. I still recommend to stop seeing people and follow the actual data when it comes out on the website I mentioned in my original message. Look for when the “hump” of cases goes back to normal, and then resume connections.
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I don't know if a lot of you have been out at night but theres and extraordinary high number of rats running the streets all over even in Beverly Hills. I think its because of the lack of activity on the streets and lack of trash.
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I can only imagine the difficult spot some of you are in, financially vs this health issue, and my heart goes out to you. I’ll stop posting now and wish you all well.
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We are a community
If we all are doing the same thing
Working from home.
Quarantining/isolating
And go to the store every 1 or 2 weeks
Then I think if u meet a guy or girl that is consistently doing the same thing and only meeting the same minded ppl
Then- it's obvious the risk is low.
Now for these healthcare workers trying to meet me! F U
And some ppl (girls) think that
Doctors and herself is immune to coronavirus and want to see these ER doctors
If that was the case why do they need gear.
This girl is on hx.... think u guys should kno..
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"Then I think if u meet a guy or girl that is consistently doing the same thing and only meeting the same minded ppl "
Thats wishful thinking. People aren't going to hook up because they are of like mines.lol
People just need to do the right thing and stay away from each other for the time being.
Thats only way to get some control of this crazy shit.
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^well I am.
I'm meeting people with network gaps, and professionals working from home.
At least I'm TRYING to do something.
And saying no to ER DOCTORS AND NURSES am I rite on that?
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"Now for these healthcare workers trying to meet me! F U" Man, Gina! That is way unattractive. No one is saying you should put yourself in a precarious position. But to publically shun healthcare workers as undesirable clients because they are on the Frontline of dealing with this crisis is a pretty ugly display of self-indulgence. If you want to work, Work. But that random "Desirable" you hook up with might turn out to be as risky as tge ER doctor you're telling to Fuck Off.
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They are saying to even limit your trips to the grocery store or pharmacy for the next couple of weeks. Check the article below.
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Actually the model does the US as a whole and also each individual state. According to this model California deaths will peak on April 17th.
Is it correct or close to being correct? Time will tell.
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Statistics is not an accurate mathematical analysis.
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The only reason why Los Angeles has been praised for keeping the rate of infection down is because of how early the social distancing was instituted here. If we now ignore that and start meeting up with people on here again, the risk of infecting a large number of people very quickly could be pretty high.
There is a high-end apartment complex across the street from The Grove in LA that has its own mini outbreak where it spread pretty rapidly throughout that community. It takes just one person to infect many people who all mingle with each other.
If Covid-19 was a normal illness that people recovered from easily, we would not be in this situation. Yesterday CNN showed what was happening in a packed ICU and how people were dying. Beyond spitting up blood and fluid from your lungs, if you are unlucky, you stop breathing and need to be intubated (be put on a respirator). And if no respirators are available, you die.
Beyond the financial issues, I also understand the social aspects of needing human interaction. It was a mistake for Trump to discuss the potential for suicides due to social isolation. yes, that is a risk, but we all have a responsibility to protect each other. The alternative is the selfish person who decides to risk many lives because they are lonely.
I thought the hero in a movie is willing to risk his or her life to save many lives, not the other way around.
Try to find things like video chats to do with others to help your emotional state. Go on walks (at a safe distance). Interact safely until we are cleared of this. Of course it will be difficult, but the alternative is hurting yourself and risking the lives of many others.
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Ladies! Ignite is hiring influencers!
Join now!
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@juliuscesar my comment was taken out of context
Do u think those coming in context with covid 19 all day ... seeing patients are worried to bring it home? Prolly social distancing in the home? Not seeing their family.
U bet!
But the disregard to see "us" girls with no regard to our health but to infect us.
Is what I'm talking about.
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I thank all essential workers and apologize I can not risk seeing them.
I'll admit F U was harsh and forgive my word choice
But more like how dare u. Come to these websites after u have been treating covid patients and highly likely ill infect us.
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Gina, all due respect but, you have absolutely NO idea what or whom the person that you see has been in contact with over the past few days. NONE.
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When did Wuhan peak?
Wuhan just ended its lockdown today or yesterday.
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Nobody really knows cause Xi is a bigger liar than Trump
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Still Fuckin!!!
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LA chef I get it... your right..
But at least I can find out if people are working from home, or in the office and cipher more info from that. I can ask them more about the in home orders and what they are doing. And if their health is important to them.
Where some people I see on facebook etc still think its a joke or not going to happen to them.
I believe you are what you attract, and I firmly believe that. I have had all but nothing good encounters. From hard working blue collar men, to white collar men.
But,
At the end of the day its about our behaviors.
I do not know how many times you go to the grocery store, or get gas at the pump, if you wear a glove, stand 6 ft away, carry sanitizer, use lysol, and all that..
I dont...
But I can at least try to make the best sense and measure of it all, and let people know I am very concerned and practicing these things myself, and so people that value that and WANT TO COME meet someone, they know that im not just gallivanting, having a party at my friends house, and bouncing off the walls. Im not...
The Preisdent and his task force, they are together, cause they are a contained group. They just stick with seeing each other basically, and people that are doing the same things as them. Am I right?
Same here, a controlled group of people that are containing themselves, lowering the risk.. Thats all.
Im not trying to meet people that are working at the grocery store, or gas station, or the lady at the front desk of the doctor office. Does'nt mean I dont respect their work, its just I Dont want to perhaps get it from them, cause they have higher exposure.
then turn it around and give it to any one of u.
Anyways.............
Come the PEAK in may...........I will be taking a back seat............. and pretty sure- I will not be available... Still working those plans out
Stay Blessed Ya'll
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Stay well! Stay safe! Stay happy!
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Well the Good news is , according to this site over 300 thousand have recovered to 1.4 Mil cases.
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Ill walk in wearing glves and a mask and swear im not a Dr.
And because im wearing a rolex, designer clothes and smell like Prada, THEN can we fuck?
I mean, I certainly can't be a carrier. You can tell by just looking at me right?
Sorry but spidey senses don't work in this situation.
I hope all are safe. I wish no harm on anyone.
But please, don't try to justify meeting people.
If you MUST work, you must work. I have great respect for those who will work to make a buck. But please, call a spade a spade.
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"If we now ignore that and start meeting up with people on here again, the risk of infecting a large number of people very quickly could be pretty high.
There is a high-end apartment complex across the street from The Grove in LA that has its own mini outbreak where it spread pretty rapidly throughout that community. It takes just one person to infect many people who all mingle with each other."
If society at large continues to social distance after the increased "hump" of cases, the number of cases will be very low. If an extremely small subset of society (groups on Hx) meet up, sure the situation could end up like that highly-interconnected high-end apartment complex you mention. Or not. It depends on how interconnected or clustered groups of Hx individuals are with one another here.
If Hx'ers are social distancing otherwise, and meet up in groups that tend to be rather fragmented or unclustered, the risk of COVID-19 passing through Hx is extremely low after we pass through the "hump" of cases.
Problem is, I don't know how fragmented or unclustered these groups are. So, is it worth the risk? Don't forget it may be like this for another year. So, for those who have to work, probably. For those who desperately need connection, maybe a meeting here or there until we get a vaccine.
But again, I'm waiting for that hump to pass 100% before I even think of meeting anyone again.
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@Night-Rider
There is one viable option that will hopefully become available soon.
Researchers are currently working on developing instant tests that determine if you are infected, just like those instant pregnancy tests. The results may be instant, or it may take 5 to 15 minutes for the results.
If both provider and client can take the test immediately before interacting, and that would be the best way of ensuring that it is safe to proceed.
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Would it be worth waiting 4 or 5 weeks in order to save your life or not?
Duh? Well.......maybe a little?
Or are you practically homeless or way addicted.
It’s a choice..
Best to you all. Wishing you safe from harms way.
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"Well the Good news is , according to this site over 300 thousand have recovered to 1.4 Mil cases."
There's lots of fishy shit going on with that data at the global level.
I sort of trust the data on the USA. But for example, USA has had 2,053,822 tests, which is 6,205 per 1 million people. Russia has had 795,000 tests, which is 5,448 per 1 million people.
So roughly the same number of tests per capita. But USA has had 1,183 cases per million, and 38 deaths per million. Whereas Russia has had just 51 cases per million, and 0.4 deaths per million.
I like that site, but I think that at best, we can trust the USA data on deaths and recoveries. But not the global data.
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The site in question belongs to the University of Washington medical research unit. Since the state was one of the hardest hit early, I believe their numbers are reasonably based on fact and study.
But still not enough testing to really make a dead-on conclusion. It at least is a bit of good news.
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Also, California has done a pretty awful job of testing.
We have just 3,673 tests per million. Only 6 states have done less.
But I guess we should be encouraged that Newsom felt safe sending 500 ventilators to NY.
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Don't come crying to me later. Imma just gonna do you like this:
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or this:
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