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Night-Rider
OC, CA
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Locked. No further comments permitted.Advice to those who are still meeting up on Hx
Apr 6 2020 09:32PM more by Night-Rider
Tags: Orange County, Townhall (All tags)

These are tough times. I know. Over the next month and a half, cases and deaths of Coronavirus in California will be peaking about mid April. Things should be back to "normal" (as in very low number of cases and deaths) by the middle of May. (Please see link to website for this projection and click on "United States of America" at the top of the website to find the data for California). This assumes full social distancing through May 2020. Projections are updated almost daily, so save the website address and check back from time to time.

My advice is hold out from meeting until the middle of May. This is for everyone. If you can. Definitely until the beginning of May. Please. I am talking about YOUR health, of course. You don't want to get sick. Coronavirus can be a nasty bug. I'm also talking about the health of others you come in contact with.

Thank you for your consideration.

Attached Links
COVID-19 Projections
      
There are 49 comments on this blog. This blog is locked and no further comments are permitted.
GoBallsDeep
Fullerton, OC, CA
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Apr 6 2020 10:03PM     link to this

Haven't looked at this site but managing by model, especially ones with very imperfect data inputs, is as dangerous as the virus.

The country is basically on lockdown, millions out of work, etc etc based on a few models

There WILL be huge increases in domestic violence and suicides, already happening.

You might survive the virus only to be homeless, no job, no spouse, and a Mad Max world to look forward to.

Now for the bad news..........
GoBallsDeep
Fullerton, OC, CA
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Apr 6 2020 10:05PM     link to this

Maybe it's better to be killed by your spouse or yourself rather than some shitty ass virus?

Night-Rider
OC, CA
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since Jul 23 2019

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Apr 6 2020 10:08PM     link to this

My point is cases are going to peak in April. You don't need a fancy model to see that. Why put yourself out there during the highest risk period?

RobBlakeFan
Yorba Linda, OC, CA
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since Nov 21 2016

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Apr 6 2020 10:11PM     link to this

If people are doing what they are supposed to it will peak much later than that. If you want it over with sooner, get out there and mingle. Pick your poison, over sooner or least people killed.
ColossusJones
AL
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since Aug 21 2011

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Apr 6 2020 10:24PM     link to this


On a long enough timeline, the mortality rate is 100%.

Night-Rider
OC, CA
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Apr 6 2020 10:24PM     link to this

No, if people social distance, it's going to peak this month.
GoBallsDeep
Fullerton, OC, CA
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since Dec 12 2019

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Apr 6 2020 10:54PM     link to this

Peak in what?

Number of cases?
Number of deaths?
% growth rate peak?

Makes a big difference.

In OC, we already peaked in % growth rate. Meaning it's heading to zero. It's possible to get a higher body count on a day that growth is positive but dropping. As long as though there's no reramp back up, then its essentially over. OC growth rates were in the 30%, then 20%, now 9% confirmed case growth and 14% death growth over the last rolling 24 hour period.

Dropping growth rate leads to eventual peak in growth itself which is your peak in cases and/or deaths. One of you math geeks could probably calculate the first order partial derivative but bottom line is that OC may be closer than you think.

But don't throw a party and invite a hundred friends over for wife swapping, k?

Yet
sherkahn
Diamond Bar, SGV, LA, CA
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Apr 6 2020 11:15PM     link to this

My two cents: Some people do need the intimacy and interaction of another person can offer. Isolation can cause long term psych effects. Just look at prison mental deterioration.

So long as everyone is safe and people understand the risks and care enough for that other person to take all the right precautions, then go live life. Don’t do something stupid. And don’t get too desperate that you take crazier risks to overcompensate.
GoBallsDeep
Fullerton, OC, CA
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Apr 6 2020 11:24PM     link to this

So it's ok to goballsdeep?
with a cover.
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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since Jul 23 2019

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Apr 6 2020 11:30PM     link to this

Clearly, if you looked at the data I sited, I was referring to peak cases and deaths, which both occur roughly the same time in mid April. And the number of cases and deaths projected in April are much higher than at any other time, making April the most dangerous time to be around others—highest probability to get sick.
DudeLebowski
247 blogs/7534 comments
since Dec 4 2010

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Apr 6 2020 11:32PM     link to this

Some of the recent information is showing that the social distancing is slowing the spread of the virus. Slowing the spread is fantastic but in no way does it eradicate the virus. It helps the healthcare system be able to hopefully handle the number of positive cases while new testing sources are being created and a vaccine is being worked on. There still will be a large number of people that get the virus over time anyway. So to minimize you chances of catching it, the mask and gloves and distancing should be part of your life from now on for some time to come. There is a very big problem once the spread goes down, it can be like a fire and it can rekindle back again quickly in certain areas, cities and communities. Pockets of virus ares.
One problem with this communities is there any many people here that aren't following the recommendations for what ever reasons they many have. This can be a problem now and in the near future. The virus can linger in a community like this long after the stay at home order is relinquished.
Bottomline the risk of catching the virus here could be greater than the community at large because of people not following the rules and people coming in close or intimate contact with each other.
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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since Jul 23 2019

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Apr 6 2020 11:41PM     link to this

The probability of catching the virus will be greatest when there are the most number of cases. Which is in April.
DudeLebowski
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Apr 6 2020 11:45PM     link to this

Thats why social distancing at this time is seriously important!
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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since Jul 23 2019

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Apr 6 2020 11:47PM     link to this

Yes, sir!
1ronvas
SGV, LA, CA
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since Dec 7 2007

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Apr 7 2020 12:01AM     link to this

It will not go down to zero anytime soon! We don’t have a Vaccine yet even if we did, like the flu vaccine we will still have people dying every year . This will not subside soon!
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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Apr 7 2020 12:17AM     link to this

I’m not saying the problem will go away. As others have pointed out, the virus will hang around and be a problem until we gat a vaccine. All I’m saying is consider not meeting up in April when we’re going to have by far the highest number of cases. This number will become low (but not zero) by mid May.
stumpy
OC, CA
49 blogs/931 comments
since Jan 28 2006

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Apr 7 2020 12:20AM     link to this

Thank you for the link. It is an interesting chart.

If you extrapolate their numbers you get a death rate of .75% calculated as follows:

For the US they are assuming total deaths of 81,766 by the end of the first wave. They are assuming that as of the end of the first wave of the epidemic that 97% of the population of the U.S. will still be susceptible to the virus. If you assume that the population of the US is about 340 million then it would mean 329 million are still vulnerable and 11 million have been exposed. If you divide 81,766 by 11 million you get approximately .75% as the death rate.

Of course if you end up with 200 million exposed with a .75% death rate then you would have 1.5 million dead.

Of course like anything else it is just an estimate at this point in time.
GinaGalaxy
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Apr 7 2020 01:11AM     link to this

News said Cases are to peak in California Early May

Night_ryder model is probably based of the US not California.

GinaGalaxy
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Apr 7 2020 01:12AM     link to this

now seeking arrangements
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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since Jul 23 2019

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Apr 7 2020 01:37AM     link to this

Gavin Newsome’s team still does predict a peak in May.

My recommendation still stands, because the problem of having a relatively high number of cases occurs not just at the peak, but during weeks before and after the peak. I still recommend to stop seeing people and follow the actual data when it comes out on the website I mentioned in my original message. Look for when the “hump” of cases goes back to normal, and then resume connections.

DudeLebowski
247 blogs/7534 comments
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Apr 7 2020 01:39AM     link to this

I don't know if a lot of you have been out at night but theres and extraordinary high number of rats running the streets all over even in Beverly Hills. I think its because of the lack of activity on the streets and lack of trash.
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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since Jul 23 2019

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Apr 7 2020 01:54AM     link to this

I can only imagine the difficult spot some of you are in, financially vs this health issue, and my heart goes out to you. I’ll stop posting now and wish you all well.
GinaGalaxy
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Apr 7 2020 02:01AM     link to this

We are a community
If we all are doing the same thing
Working from home.
Quarantining/isolating

And go to the store every 1 or 2 weeks

Then I think if u meet a guy or girl that is consistently doing the same thing and only meeting the same minded ppl

Then- it's obvious the risk is low.

Now for these healthcare workers trying to meet me! F U
And some ppl (girls) think that

Doctors and herself is immune to coronavirus and want to see these ER doctors

If that was the case why do they need gear.

This girl is on hx.... think u guys should kno..
DudeLebowski
247 blogs/7534 comments
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Apr 7 2020 02:14AM     link to this

"Then I think if u meet a guy or girl that is consistently doing the same thing and only meeting the same minded ppl "

Thats wishful thinking. People aren't going to hook up because they are of like mines.lol
People just need to do the right thing and stay away from each other for the time being.
Thats only way to get some control of this crazy shit.
GinaGalaxy
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Apr 7 2020 02:20AM     link to this

^well I am.
I'm meeting people with network gaps, and professionals working from home.
At least I'm TRYING to do something.

And saying no to ER DOCTORS AND NURSES am I rite on that?
juliuscaesar1
City of Los Angeles, LA, CA
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since Jun 2 2018

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Apr 7 2020 02:24AM     link to this

"Now for these healthcare workers trying to meet me! F U" Man, Gina! That is way unattractive. No one is saying you should put yourself in a precarious position. But to publically shun healthcare workers as undesirable clients because they are on the Frontline of dealing with this crisis is a pretty ugly display of self-indulgence. If you want to work, Work. But that random "Desirable" you hook up with might turn out to be as risky as tge ER doctor you're telling to Fuck Off.
DudeLebowski
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Apr 7 2020 02:24AM     link to this

They are saying to even limit your trips to the grocery store or pharmacy for the next couple of weeks. Check the article below.
Attached Links
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/white-house-says-avoid-grocery-162744189.html
stumpy
OC, CA
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Apr 7 2020 06:27AM     link to this

Actually the model does the US as a whole and also each individual state. According to this model California deaths will peak on April 17th.

Is it correct or close to being correct? Time will tell.
fustino
City of Los Angeles, LA, CA
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since Mar 21 2009

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Apr 7 2020 06:54AM     link to this

Statistics is not an accurate mathematical analysis.
mildlyamusing1
West Hollywood, LA, CA
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Apr 7 2020 07:53AM     link to this

The only reason why Los Angeles has been praised for keeping the rate of infection down is because of how early the social distancing was instituted here. If we now ignore that and start meeting up with people on here again, the risk of infecting a large number of people very quickly could be pretty high.

There is a high-end apartment complex across the street from The Grove in LA that has its own mini outbreak where it spread pretty rapidly throughout that community. It takes just one person to infect many people who all mingle with each other.

If Covid-19 was a normal illness that people recovered from easily, we would not be in this situation. Yesterday CNN showed what was happening in a packed ICU and how people were dying. Beyond spitting up blood and fluid from your lungs, if you are unlucky, you stop breathing and need to be intubated (be put on a respirator). And if no respirators are available, you die.


Beyond the financial issues, I also understand the social aspects of needing human interaction. It was a mistake for Trump to discuss the potential for suicides due to social isolation. yes, that is a risk, but we all have a responsibility to protect each other. The alternative is the selfish person who decides to risk many lives because they are lonely.

I thought the hero in a movie is willing to risk his or her life to save many lives, not the other way around.

Try to find things like video chats to do with others to help your emotional state. Go on walks (at a safe distance). Interact safely until we are cleared of this. Of course it will be difficult, but the alternative is hurting yourself and risking the lives of many others.
jessicataylorla
City of Los Angeles, LA, CA
City of Los Angeles, LA, CA Today!
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since Jun 18 2016

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Apr 7 2020 08:41AM     link to this

Ladies! Ignite is hiring influencers!
Join now!
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https://smo.ai/4a2zli
GinaGalaxy
MO
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Apr 7 2020 08:57AM     link to this

@juliuscesar my comment was taken out of context

Do u think those coming in context with covid 19 all day ... seeing patients are worried to bring it home? Prolly social distancing in the home? Not seeing their family.
U bet!

But the disregard to see "us" girls with no regard to our health but to infect us.

Is what I'm talking about.


GinaGalaxy
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Apr 7 2020 08:58AM     link to this

I thank all essential workers and apologize I can not risk seeing them.

I'll admit F U was harsh and forgive my word choice

But more like how dare u. Come to these websites after u have been treating covid patients and highly likely ill infect us.
lachef
Marina Del Rey, LA, CA
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Apr 7 2020 09:08AM     link to this

Gina, all due respect but, you have absolutely NO idea what or whom the person that you see has been in contact with over the past few days. NONE.
Al_Most_Perfect
Bay Area, CA
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Apr 7 2020 09:18AM     link to this

When did Wuhan peak?

Wuhan just ended its lockdown today or yesterday.
GoBallsDeep
Fullerton, OC, CA
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Apr 7 2020 09:21AM     link to this

Nobody really knows cause Xi is a bigger liar than Trump
OVAHERE
San Diego, CA
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Apr 7 2020 10:18AM     link to this

Still Fuckin!!!
GinaGalaxy
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Apr 7 2020 10:24AM     link to this

LA chef I get it... your right..
But at least I can find out if people are working from home, or in the office and cipher more info from that. I can ask them more about the in home orders and what they are doing. And if their health is important to them.

Where some people I see on facebook etc still think its a joke or not going to happen to them.

I believe you are what you attract, and I firmly believe that. I have had all but nothing good encounters. From hard working blue collar men, to white collar men.

But,

At the end of the day its about our behaviors.

I do not know how many times you go to the grocery store, or get gas at the pump, if you wear a glove, stand 6 ft away, carry sanitizer, use lysol, and all that..

I dont...

But I can at least try to make the best sense and measure of it all, and let people know I am very concerned and practicing these things myself, and so people that value that and WANT TO COME meet someone, they know that im not just gallivanting, having a party at my friends house, and bouncing off the walls. Im not...




The Preisdent and his task force, they are together, cause they are a contained group. They just stick with seeing each other basically, and people that are doing the same things as them. Am I right?

Same here, a controlled group of people that are containing themselves, lowering the risk.. Thats all.

Im not trying to meet people that are working at the grocery store, or gas station, or the lady at the front desk of the doctor office. Does'nt mean I dont respect their work, its just I Dont want to perhaps get it from them, cause they have higher exposure.

then turn it around and give it to any one of u.



Anyways.............

Come the PEAK in may...........I will be taking a back seat............. and pretty sure- I will not be available... Still working those plans out


Stay Blessed Ya'll
LXIX_I812
Huntington Beach, OC, CA
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Apr 7 2020 10:41AM     link to this

Stay well! Stay safe! Stay happy!
AFMadness
Inland Empire, CA
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since Aug 17 2009

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Apr 7 2020 10:53AM     link to this

Well the Good news is , according to this site over 300 thousand have recovered to 1.4 Mil cases.
.
Attached Links
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
taste.u
Thousand Oaks, Ventura, Central Coast, CA
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Apr 7 2020 11:36AM     link to this

Ill walk in wearing glves and a mask and swear im not a Dr.
And because im wearing a rolex, designer clothes and smell like Prada, THEN can we fuck?
I mean, I certainly can't be a carrier. You can tell by just looking at me right?

Sorry but spidey senses don't work in this situation.
I hope all are safe. I wish no harm on anyone.
But please, don't try to justify meeting people.
If you MUST work, you must work. I have great respect for those who will work to make a buck. But please, call a spade a spade.
Night-Rider
OC, CA
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Apr 7 2020 12:16PM     link to this

"If we now ignore that and start meeting up with people on here again, the risk of infecting a large number of people very quickly could be pretty high.

There is a high-end apartment complex across the street from The Grove in LA that has its own mini outbreak where it spread pretty rapidly throughout that community. It takes just one person to infect many people who all mingle with each other."

If society at large continues to social distance after the increased "hump" of cases, the number of cases will be very low. If an extremely small subset of society (groups on Hx) meet up, sure the situation could end up like that highly-interconnected high-end apartment complex you mention. Or not. It depends on how interconnected or clustered groups of Hx individuals are with one another here.

If Hx'ers are social distancing otherwise, and meet up in groups that tend to be rather fragmented or unclustered, the risk of COVID-19 passing through Hx is extremely low after we pass through the "hump" of cases.

Problem is, I don't know how fragmented or unclustered these groups are. So, is it worth the risk? Don't forget it may be like this for another year. So, for those who have to work, probably. For those who desperately need connection, maybe a meeting here or there until we get a vaccine.

But again, I'm waiting for that hump to pass 100% before I even think of meeting anyone again.



mildlyamusing1
West Hollywood, LA, CA
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Apr 7 2020 01:29PM     link to this

@Night-Rider

There is one viable option that will hopefully become available soon.

Researchers are currently working on developing instant tests that determine if you are infected, just like those instant pregnancy tests. The results may be instant, or it may take 5 to 15 minutes for the results.

If both provider and client can take the test immediately before interacting, and that would be the best way of ensuring that it is safe to proceed.

R2d26
Burbank, SFV, LA, CA
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Apr 7 2020 01:54PM     link to this

Would it be worth waiting 4 or 5 weeks in order to save your life or not?

Duh? Well.......maybe a little?

Or are you practically homeless or way addicted.

It’s a choice..

Best to you all. Wishing you safe from harms way.
Al_Most_Perfect
Bay Area, CA
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Apr 7 2020 02:02PM     link to this

"Well the Good news is , according to this site over 300 thousand have recovered to 1.4 Mil cases."

There's lots of fishy shit going on with that data at the global level.

I sort of trust the data on the USA. But for example, USA has had 2,053,822 tests, which is 6,205 per 1 million people. Russia has had 795,000 tests, which is 5,448 per 1 million people.

So roughly the same number of tests per capita. But USA has had 1,183 cases per million, and 38 deaths per million. Whereas Russia has had just 51 cases per million, and 0.4 deaths per million.

I like that site, but I think that at best, we can trust the USA data on deaths and recoveries. But not the global data.
sandydonald1959
LA, CA
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Apr 7 2020 02:02PM     link to this



The site in question belongs to the University of Washington medical research unit. Since the state was one of the hardest hit early, I believe their numbers are reasonably based on fact and study.

But still not enough testing to really make a dead-on conclusion. It at least is a bit of good news.
Al_Most_Perfect
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Apr 7 2020 02:12PM     link to this

Also, California has done a pretty awful job of testing.

We have just 3,673 tests per million. Only 6 states have done less.

But I guess we should be encouraged that Newsom felt safe sending 500 ventilators to NY.
0utrageous
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Apr 7 2020 02:27PM     link to this

Don't come crying to me later. Imma just gonna do you like this:
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0utrageous
LA, CA
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Apr 7 2020 02:29PM     link to this

or this:
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