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"The testing results also may be artificially high because 'these are people who were out and about shopping,' [Governor Andrew] Cuomo [stated]. 'They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn’t come out of the house.'"
So staying at home and isolating will help protect you from getting this disease.
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if anything, then it's highly more infectious than the flu, because 50K+ already dead in a span of a month with all the lock downs in place? imagine the numbers if there wasn't a lockdown. hundreds of thousands, and even more dying of other things with the medical infrastructure being bogged down.
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Make a mistake with the calculation. I mixed New York City deaths with New York State cases. If we do all NY state:
15,870 deaths in NY state / 2,700,000 cases in NY State = 0.6% death rate.
If we do NYC:
11,267 deaths in NYC /1,780,800 cases in NYC = 0.6% death rate
The death rate will be higher if you add unofficial deaths. (NY Times compared number of deaths this year to number of deaths in previous years at the same time):
17,200 excess deaths in NYC / 1,780,000 cases in NYC = 1% death rate
That's not trivial at all. About ten times higher than the influenza death rate.
(Cuomo has said 21.2% of those tested from NYC (population 8,400,000) had antibodies. That's how I got 1,780,000 cases).
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essentially they don't have a clue
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as of today new york posts 262.268 cases with 20,792 deaths app 7.9%
cal 37,707 case with 1438 deaths app 3.8%
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This is the problem...decisions are made based upon data and when that data is not complete, bad decisions can be made. But they were the best decisions given the data. Can't "Monday Morning Quarterback" people, since it wasn't so obvious when the decisions were made compared to weeks later.
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@NR
Why not work up the numbers for CA instead of just NY?
CA population rounded is 40,000,000
Total reported case count is 39,010 to now
Total deaths count is 1,514 to now
Run your numbers for both CA and USA, let's see those percentages
We all know that NYC is a bit of a special case with highest densities especially in hardest hit areas, low income, poor public hospital system, etc. etc. It's a bit disingenuous to use only NY as your example.
Then average your .6% NY with those numbers from CA or USA or wherever in the US.
I bet it likely that it shows up about .2%, granted higher than this years flu season (about 30,000) but maybe not so much higher than the previous year (61,000 revised down from original estimate of 79,000)
love to see the numbers from an expert, thanks
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maybe my calculator is crazy?
I get .0000378, rounded up comes to .004% for CA
Did I do that right?
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I think that we will have three more weeks of lockdown after this week. LA County is set to go to May 15, 2020. I think that they will end the stay-at-home order. There will continue to be social distancing. There will be no Major League Baseball or Taylor Swift concerts, but at least we will be allowed to get back to a way of life that is almost normal.
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Must have done something wrong
Let's try Orange County thru today
3,100,000 pop
1,827 cases
36 deaths
.0000116 = .0012%??
Must be a damn Trump calculator
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According to todays briefing they said sunlight, heat and humidity kills the virus very quickly.
Alcohol kills the virus in 30 sec.
Bleach kill virus in 5 min.
This was info given out by Trump's people, so it needs to be cooperated by others.
Elizabeth Warrens oldest brother died from covid 19 recently.
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Stupid Covid missed the real target and got the brother
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i think i did that wrong
OC @ 14% has 434,000 cases and 36 deaths
hmmm, .000083 = .0083% i guess that's less than point 1 % but you could round up to .1%
dammit, that's less than the flu, can't have that
CA @ 14% has 5,600,000 and 1,514 deaths
let's see, that's .00027 = .027%
i guess that's a better story since it's higher
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The Covid molecule has a thin outer fat coating....
We all know that soap dissolves fat....hot water melts fat....heat also melts fat.
So hand washing and clothing washing are among the best measures to beat the virus.
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I wash my hands all the time bathe 2 times. Day and my fat ass ain't getting any thinner. :-(
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Deaths follow diagnosis by 2-4 weeks so the numerator relationship to today’s deaths is the number of cases of 2-4 weeks ago.
Very difficult to define a mortality today basis the lack of good credible dats but I suspect it’s not far off.
Nick.
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For OC I get,
36 deaths / 1827 cases = 2% death rate.
But I'm sure there are more unreported cases, so this number is likely an overestimate.
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yep no worse place to be right now than NYC.
From what I see, people in nursing homes are hit the hardest..
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Is it not yet obvious that trying to relate fatality to infection rate is a waste of time. We will be hit by WW3 or an asteroid before anyone knows that. Seriously
You know confirmed deaths by age due to COVID-19 normalized to a given population. That metric is real low for people age 60 and below.
That's all you need to know that most of this country can get going again soon.
If Gov Cuomo wants to keep NY shut down I dont give a fuck.
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Well .. one amazing feature of COVID-19. It has managed to wipe out Cancer, Heart Disease, Emphysema and even just plain Old age. No one has dies of any of those things in months .. amazing. Oh .. you have Lung Cancer .. got sick and died in the Hospital? In 2019 .. your death would have been from ... Lung Cancer. In 2020 .. no no no no ... Its COVID-19.
Lets please stop pretending the social distancing thing is even a thing. Virus has been in California since January at Worst.
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@Nigel wow this all may be worth it if we dont have to ever hear from Taylor Swift ever again.
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If alcohol kills the virus, maybe they should try injecting alcohol into people's veins? Has anybody thought of that?
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I think Trump just suggested using disinfectant. Inside the body.
Can't make this shit up.
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Another cautionary note is that current infections can still lead to death, so IFR can still potentially go up a fair amount.
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Trump specified that only medical doctors should inject the disinfectant.
So don't try it at home or anything.
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Scientist my ass @NR you fucking phony. 
Why'd you change the math from how you did it for NY?
OC doesn't fit your narrative, hell CA doesn't even fit your narrative so you fudge the numbers.
I knew your judgement was worthless, welcome back FisherWright you POS
).gif)
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Very simple. We don't know what percentage of people from Orange County have been infected. I did say 2% was likely an overestimation.
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Why are you so angry, GoBallsDeep?
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Angry? Overestmate?
Laughing at you dude
Fucking poseur
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Whatever gets your rocks off, I guess...
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We simply don't know that 14% of the OC and California have had Coronavirus. You are the one with the agenda here.
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^^^ You just made my point...
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It's your blog, poseur
You can fuck it up if you like
We got Doom dood and Gloom guy
How about Fake Fuck? Hmm, Death Dood?
Help me out here
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Magic man!
Yeah, that's the ticket, lol.
Sleight of hand here on the numbers
And a little diversion with the "why so angry"
Deflector shields to full with the "it's your agenda"
YOU started the blog with your agenda, Magic man.
Then you epic failed, lol
Tell us about your climate change model
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8 minutes is all one needs. There is a far bigger picture than a bunch of numbers.
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let the man speak.
and lets other who care to interpret information here do so.
its so distasteful and hideous when a number of guys on this blog routinely gang up and troll. destroying blogs
especially ones with some data to consider.
please... guys... be nice  make this place a nice place for blogs
so random ppl visiting out site will comsider to join etc.
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Well said, Gina.
Hey Nigel, did you have tickets to Taylor Swift?
Curious that you chose to menton her...
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I don't know who needs to hear this right now (or which Trumps voters need to hear it), but...
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"any other route"
So, I should stop spraying Lysol up my ass???
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Trump suggested you put disinfectant in your body.
I hope all the Trump supporters listen to him lol
That shits so crazy the makers of Lysol had to put out a warning today
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I wonder what will be left, once the shutdown is lifted?
I appears that the restaurant industry is destroyed.
How will the state and local governments operate with a 25% drop in revenues?
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please... guys... be nice make this place a nice place for blogs
@GG Sounds good, does that mean you'll be deleting what you said to @Sass along with the private medical info you outed on the other blog?
@Night-Rider is a fraud with an agenda and needs to be spanked
Not sure if i heard this right but somebody was reporting that a directive came down that any deaths that happen regardless of cause get marked as Covid if there is a positive test result, even if they died from a car accident or some other obvious means other than CV-19.
I don't put much stock in it but looking around for a reliable source that can corroborate, sounds like disinformation to me but WTFK?
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Cuomo stated that NYC is showing above 20% infection rates which make the numbers even worse for Night-Rider.
Still waiting on that climate change model
what's gonna get us first, the virus or the climate change?
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Trump supporters don't listen to the left wing media news.
As Trump said "you can inject Lysol and disinfectant into your body and it will dissolve the virus".
Trump just left his daily briefing today and didn't even address this, so I guess Trump supports should conclude his statements on this from yesterday stands.
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GBD,
There is at least some anecdotal information that suggest people might be misclassified as Corona Virus deaths when perhaps they should be under another category.
The first death attributed to Corona Virus in LA County showed up in a hospital in Pomona because the lady was having a heart attack. They discovered she also had the corona virus and when she died they counted her as the first corona virus death in LA County.
On the other hand there might be some deaths that should be attributed to the corona virus that are categorized as something else.
Unfortunately with many of the older people especially those living in nursing homes they already have one foot in the grave and the other foot on a banana peel so the least little thing like catching the common cold might kill them. In many instances it is probably difficult to accurately determine the primary cause of death.
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@ Dude
What people should get from Trumps disinfectant statement yesterday.
He was talking out of his ass, much like a lot of politicians who say and do stupid shit and get caught in front of the cameras doing it.
Good thing they dont follow us around all day and night.
Ill give you your comeback line - "But he is the President and should be more careful about what he says ... Yeah I know
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