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A flaw in this analysis is that it's likely all positive recent tests weren't reported yet, so we'll have to see.
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But that could include the total number of recent tests as well, so we'll have to see.
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I've been breathing this whole time, but if you want to hold your breath, be my guest.
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Cases may be less in OC because there may be less infections there and also less testing sites.
Heres an interesting article on symptoms in some people.
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^But I'm looking at the ratio of positive tests to total tests, so, unless positive tests aren't evenly distributed, that shouldn't be a problem.
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Anyone can now get a test regardless of if you have symptoms.
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Check out the OC stats for yourself, straight from the source.
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A half assed social distance quarantine doesn't do shit, states that have already opened up have not seen much change. Same with some European countries and restrictions are being slowly lifted.
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im over talking bkut the what if
stay home
stay out of people faces in public
if u get sick stay home
if u get sick cant breath go to doctors
do this all while wearing a kitchen sink and soap dispenser around your neck for 30 hours a day
and you good.
Now all joking aside
I have been social distancing from Hx
not sure any1 noticed it kinda just happened
and im more than confident to resume dating 
here in a week or so.. as
things are flattening out or whatever
at the same time.
pointing out the obvious
is pushing us further from the truth and reality.
stay calm
be patient
chill
fend for yourself and family.
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^ apparently believes there's no middle ground between being handcuffed to the radiator in his mom's basement and jumping into the mosh pit at a rave, lol.
What is wrong with you, troll? Can you not get a life where you're not a raving lunatic waving your arms spitting on everone with your personal brand of CV19 scare tactics?
Grow up, be real, add something to the debate.
Please
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The tests are not random. The vast majority of people being tested have symptoms. Looking at the number of positive tests vs. total tests is not statistically valid as the tests are not random. As the testing opens up to people without symptoms, the prediction would be that the ratio of positive tests to total tests would trend down.
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It is totally logical that way more people have had Covid-19 than previously reported. Last year upwards of 50 million people got the flu.
We are not even at 2 million for Covid-19, so can we expect that a comparable number will occur. We have social distancing and other measures, but no vaccine so it is not known whether we will approach that mark. But the death rate is going down as we find more positives and previous exposure in antibody tests.
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Interested way of new people could get infected.
"Coronavirus found in men's semen"
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Doofey , be carefull nows not the time to seek out strange BBCs. Please stay safe, do your part like the hall monitor you where as a youth in the Democratic Socialist Party
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"The tests are not random. The vast majority of people being tested have symptoms. Looking at the number of positive tests vs. total tests is not statistically valid as the tests are not random. As the testing opens up to people without symptoms, the prediction would be that the ratio of positive tests to total tests would trend down."
I'm not using this data as a sampling of everyone in OC who might have COVID-19, so no need for any statistical tests here. I don't have that data. I'm using this to look at all symptomatic cases that were serious enough to report, and they are going down.
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^ If I may be facetious, is this your way of walking back what you were saying last month?
That
We're
All
Going
To die!
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Cases are going down now, but cases could go up again, especially as transmissions go up while we open up.
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Don't know all the stats for people in OC but if you're Latin, M or F, 41 to 65 and live in Long Beach, Glendale, Los Angeles city, San Pedro, East Los Angeles you are highly at risk. Also the people in Residential Congregate Settings nursing homes, jails, care centers are very highly at risk. OC has much less cases so its hard to find the stats. The thing is people in OC can get a false sense of security not realizing people for LA go to OC every day.
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^Fair point about certain groups of people being at high risk. People who aren't lucky enough to be able to stay at home.
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"Latin, M or F, 41 to 65 and live in Long Beach, Glendale, Los Angeles city, San Pedro, East Los Angeles you are highly at risk. Also the people in Residential Congregate Settings nursing homes, jails, care centers are very highly at risk."
@NR, notice that these are specifically the people that ARE staying home, sheltering with multiple family members living in close proximity for long periods and infecting each other. Oh, plus they got no job to go to anyway anymore thanks to you and Niall. You think these people are catching the virus at their non-existent job, the beach, the park?
At the most fundamental basis, you just don't get it. This is why we should not let pseduo-scientists, who play with spreadsheets determine social policy. You make the problem worse not better.
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^Not true. I was responding to the fact a lot of this Latinos have essential jobs and can't shelter at home. That is why they are getting sick.
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"Meanwhile, Latinos are heavily represented on farms and in stores and warehouses, essential businesses that remain open during the virus shutdown. These jobs often find workers crowding together or facing the public without proper safety gear."
It is also true that they are crowding at home due to the high cost of housing. It's hard to isolate and quarantine folks when you have impoverished Latinos smooshed into tiny apartments.
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Source: USA Today
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impoverished due to government required lockdown
are you privy to sources that actually track where and when anybody gets it?
Other than nursing homes and prisons which are easily tracked, the rest is a crapshoot
Source:
Everybody, lol
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The odds are much better than a crapshoot if you know that people are much more likely to interact when they work or live close together.
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live close together absolutely, much easier to know that.
Workplaces vary a great deal
landscaping at a golf course vs. putting out veggies at the market?
really? is there a dif?
the reality is there is a lot we just still do not know.
What we really don't know is how much damage the Imperial college/Niall has done to this country and the world.....and won't know for years to come.
He fucked up, that's the bottom line
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It seems the economy in CA won't be fully operational until July.
I wonder how many people will still have jobs by then as there will
be many businesses that will not reopen. Very sad! 
And there is one thing, you can expect in the future in CA is, taxes, taxes and more taxes,
in an attempt to cover the huge loss of revenue the state and local governments encountered
due to the shutdown, they imposed.
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Over 80,000 dead in less than three months
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That is terrible news but we've had flu seasons as bad AND we had a vaccine at the time....supposedly. 2017/2018 was also terrible and nobody even remembers it. It killed a lot of children, something CV is not doing.
"NEW YORK — An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease’s highest death toll in at least four decades. It was driven by a kind of flu that tends to put more people in the hospital and cause more deaths, particularly among young children and the elderly. Making a bad year worse, the flu vaccine didn’t work very well. Experts nevertheless say vaccination is still worth it, because it makes illnesses less severe and save lives. CDC officials do not have exact counts of how many people die from flu each year. Flu is so common that not all flu cases are reported, and flu is not always listed on death certificates. So the CDC uses statistical models, which are periodically revised, to make estimates."
In 1957, An estimated 250,000 died in the US, 2 - 4 million worldwide. The strain of virus that caused the pandemic, influenza A virus subtype H2N2, was a recombination of avian influenza (probably from geese) and human influenza viruses. As it was a novel strain of the virus, there was minimal immunity in the population.
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The one problem with using the data from say OC Health, is the dates will be skewed.
As I read it, a person that tests positive today is reported as a positive case, today. The problem is, we don't know when that person was tested. Could have been today or maybe as many as 4 days ago or anywhere in-between.
I do agree, testing numbers are generally rising over time. Positive tests are also generally rising over time as well. I'd say, only taking a swag at it, OC is probably doing alright at this time.
That is not to say, the disease isn't serious for some people, as it is deadly. It isn't to say, go ahead and act like we did in February, we shouldn't.
Fortunately the healthcare system in OC still has manageable numbers. If we all continue acting responsible, then hopefully the healthcare system can manage the problem as it can.
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Infection rate of Orange County is about 2%.
Death rate is about 0.09%.
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^ +1 hornytoad - epidemiologically correct.
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Another way to look at "real" numbers is to look at population based numbers.
In the OC there are about 3million people. We have 76 deaths. So about 25 deaths per million people.
If you look at New York state, they have 1,378 deaths per million people (or about 60x our current death rate).
We can also look at cases. We have about 1,000 cases per million people, they have over 17,000 cases per million (about 17x our current rate).
Now that can mean two things, people in New York are sicker because of where they life (winter, tight quarters, etc) or we are just going to catch up with New York eventually.
I personally think we will catch up with New York, but hoping that we catch up to the lower multiple of 17x worse than it is now, rather than the larger multiple of 60x.
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People discussing infection and fatality rates but yet still not coupling in the age distribution.
Get back to work
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People in the OC aren't thinking, as things open more people from LA county will be traveling to the OC increasing your infection rate there.
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^ Well, you unhealthy mofos need to shelter at home and stay away from OC 
Seriously, there are 97 experimental vaccines in development as we speak, most aimed at approval in 2021......which is a long time from now. But, viruses can mutate, making it more difficult AND who knows if any of them will work at all.
Normally, it takes up to 10 years to go thru discovery and development. Now, trying to do it in a year or less, tough job. Moderna is already in Phase 2 trials but their technology focuses on messenger RNA, a more difficult commercial attempt.
Also, who knows how many will be willing to take a vaccine that is mostly unproven with an unknown safety profile. We got anti-vaxxers that won't even take the proven stuff.
It's a long haul and we will have to be willing to know that we're going to lose more people, that's reality.
Here is the downside of our current protocol lasting forever. I know of 1 person who has throat cancer who cannot get the "elective" treatment needed now. Will she end up in a statistic for people who died due to CV19 protocols when her non-treatment leads to her death? Not going to happen because nobody even keeps track of that number........which will be thousands or tens of thousands in the long run.
Unintended consequences..........
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What if we did nothing?
May 11th, 2020 in that alternate world
- 250 million infected
- 8 million dead Americans
- dead bodies left in the streets
6-8 weeks ago, the best data said a 4.3% mortality rate, and the number of cases were doubling every few days. That's 15 million dead, and probably 20 million or more total, because 95% who should have been hospitalized would get zero hospital care. That''s why you flatten the curve.
The last 2 months has brought us better testing, better drugs, a beefed up medical system, and thankfully better data.
The actual mortality rate is probably 4x to 5x lower because most don't have major symptoms. Still way higher than the flu, but low enough for a controlled and managed release.
Y'all are nothing but Monday morning quarterbacks. Try making these decisions 8 weeks ago in the middle of a shitstorm.
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Thank goodness travel from China and Europe was cut off early...
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How much good did restricting travel do?
It was closing the barn door after all the horses ran out.
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^JHF numbers are highly unlikely and a jumble of CFR (case fatality rate) versus IFR (Infection fatality rate, which includes asymptomatics) and overall PFR (population fatality rate, which includes those who will never be infected.)
Just saw one analysis that says "herd immunity" is probably at 35-45% for COVID, meaning that r0 declining around that point. I'm guessing the max global fatality rate would be something like 30MM, max, assuming there were no treatments or behavior changes. A big number, yes, but not THAT big on the scale of things, and not an apocalypse.
Almost 18MM people die each year from cardiovascular disease.
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Dude stop with this Trump travel ban stuff you post all the time.
AGAIN 46,000 people came to the US after Trumps so call ban with China.
" On Jan. 31, Trump announced restrictions on travel to the United States from China, where the virus had originated. The restrictions were porous and came too late, but Trump assured Americans that our country was safe. That assurance collapsed as infections spread within the United States. It turned out that the virus had come in part through Europe. So Trump changed his story. He said that shortly after cutting off travel from China, he had cut off travel from Europe too.
Trump�s story was false. Here�s what actually happened. The first European country swamped by the virus was Italy. On Feb. 24 and Feb. 25, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Netherlands issued advisories against travel to Italy. Then, on Feb. 27, Israel banned incoming travel from Italy. Over the next several days, Singapore, Indonesia, and other countries followed suit.
Trump was invited to do what these governments were doing. He refused. On Feb. 26, a reporter asked him whether he planned to restrict travel from Italy. �I�m not the president of other countries,� Trump replied. �We have to focus on this country. I don�t think it�s right to impose our self on others.� He added, �At a right time, we may do that. Right now, it�s not the right time.� On Feb. 29, the administration issued a travel advisory, but it was voluntary. It applied to only a small fraction of Italy, and it didn�t directly address travel from Italy at all.
Not until March 11, about six weeks after his move against China, did Trump announce an order �suspending all travel from Europe� as of March 14."
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The 40 some thousand people after the ban were Chinese Americans who were returning from Chinese new year.
They went into quranteen
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The people from China were NOT quarantined. Neither were the Europeans entering the US.
At that time Trump was more worried about people getting off the cruise ship than people entering the country from China and Italy.
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I'm not going to waste my day arguing with you. It comes down to the notion of essential vs non-essential travel.
I work with a few engineers who were both returning at the time and a few almost ready to embark to foreign countries. We got people back in time and cut off travel. Citizens and work related travel is "essential "
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More than 480,000 deaths annually (including deaths from secondhand smoke)
I blame Trump
I blame Trump for everything.
I blame 'The Dude' for everything else.
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^Whats that shit got to do with covid??
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Not a dam thing but I wanna blame Trump for something.
If it aint his fault let's make something up
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You posted 480,000 was that all deaths in the US for the year?
As of today were at 80,000 known covid deaths since Feb. with a lockdown in place for almost two months now.
Theres (plenty) of real shit to blame Trump for. There no need to just make up shit.
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