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Whenever you mention Newsom, the panties (if I wear them) get wet! He is just so dang fine!
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Like your motorcylce Kaiser. I can imagine riding on the back of it "in the raw" with you. Love being out in Nature and being au-naturelle. I swam au-naturelle during a sailing session in the OC with a french captain a few years back in Newport Beach. We were super far out in the ocean tho for that!
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That was my first motorcycle waayyyyy back in I984!
You would enjoy the bike I have now a little more.
10 years or so ago... we had a member that was licensed to Captain a sailboat.
A group of us would pitch in a few bucks and rent a nice sized boat ⛵️.
They were always great afternoons. 6 or 7 guys... 8-9 beautiful HX ladies (all off duty)
Just fun days of relaxing and hanging out. All good fun!
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What's happening Captain! Let's find another el capitain and go sail. I'm in!
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Wonder how this guy still had a job after all the shit he got wrong.
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Hey KaiserSoce haven't 31,000 Brits have died in 2 months and by Monday 80,000 Americans will have died. Are you saying that fewer people would have died if we had not instituted the shutdown? Are you arguing that we wouldn't have shut things down if we knew that 80k people would die even if we shut things down? I get that his numbers were off but the reality is pretty darn awful.
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Newsom looks like the bukakke boy at a gay orgy with all that shit in his hair. Talks like one too.
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Not necessarily to defend Newsome, but I'm curious how you know what a bukkake boy at a gay orgy looks like.
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@ph +1 ... seems kinda curious one would know that
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Everyone should listen to this.
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He reminds me of this movie scene.
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Things would be a lot worse if we did nothing. Thank God we didn't do that.
Ferguson has been a well-respected scientist published in well-respected journals such as Science.
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I will defend modeling, my trade. Modeling has succeeded. It has succeeded at getting people in positions of power to take COVID-19 extremely seriously. The large numbers of deaths from modeling may have made people think they are unrealistically high, but they also produced a large-scale response that meant that we haven’t seen the fulmination of these modeling results. If we cut back on social distancing now, before rampant testing is in place, we may unfortunately see some of these modeling results come to fruition.
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John Fund wrote a piece of trash of an article. You want to know why? Because each time Fund said that Ferguson was terribly wrong, he was examining Ferguson's WORST CASE SCENARIO estimate, not the wide range of estimates given by Ferguson in his papers. Ferguson, as most modelers due, give a range of estimates based on different scenarios. Ferguson's papers never hype the worst case scenario estimates. Maybe others due, but not the scientists. Now Fund is hyping Ferguson's worst case scenarios to trash him. So Fund is the one who's hyping garbage, not Ferguson.
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Dang, sounds like Night Ride, NEEDS "A RELEASE"...😂😂😂😂
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 You’re right. I haven’t gotten laid since this pandemic began.
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@NR
Ok I'll bite... The Ferguson model(s) have been used in several situations that have cost the UK nearly. We have yet another instance with Covid-19 where now the world who has followed his modeling has paid dearly and "maybe" rightfully so only time will tell.
Ferguson states that within his software there is undocumented code that he is not exactly sure about(or that's what I got from the article). I'm sorry but he's been using it for decades how has their been no effort to decipher this code especially given the grave economic cost if there is something that needs to be discovered within it.
No doubt the Dr. Is a genius but that does not make him infallible. Dr. Fauci as late as Februaury was telling us this was not something we needed to worry about and I dont doubt his knowledge, I doubt the information they are using to make such pronouncements though.
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*dearly not nearly
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I don’t know about the other pandemics and the Ferguson models, but again I would caution people from thinking that Ferguson was the one trying to create panic with his models. He modeled behaviors and outcomes — many of them for many different scenarios. His critics are now focusing on his worst case scenarios — one scenario out of dozens for each case, I presume.
He uses this compartmentalized model from 2005, where he simulated individuals in a population based on their household, occupation, and community. The basic framework of the model hasn’t changed — only the parameters that go into it. That is why the software used has remained the same. There really is not a mystery here as to why he has repeated use of his software. One could make a argument that he shouldn’t be using the same type of model to model influenza as COVID-19 because the type of infectious networks for both may be inherently different, but that is an academic argument I have, which is just speculation at this point on my end.
We have still no way of knowing how bad the pandemic would have been if we did nothing. It most certainly would be a lot worse than we have now. I still think after things are settled and done that hundreds of thousands of Americans will die. If we had done absolutely nothing, many more Americans would have died. So for pushing us into action, modelers like Ferguson, with their flawed models, are heroes, not villains.
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Respectfully regarding the software... He had used it on multiple occasions has had ample opportunity to have a team look at the source code and yet has not. When you are dealing with the stuff he is dealing with excuse me but why the hell hasn't he?
Otherwise it's like asking a Magic 8 ball how bad things will be. I know I'm grossly oversimplifying but I'm surprised that that is not concerning to you @NR whether its accurate or not. It's basically saying trust me. Which again in my opinion just isn't good enough.
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Instead of looking at the software, people should be making their own software using the same inputs and parameters he does to see if they get similar results. That's usually what you do in academics.
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His supplementary material goes into a deep account of what he's modeling. This should be enough for anyone who wants to copy his model to test.
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That's actually what I do when I want to check someone else's result. I just write my own code and use their data. It's actually easier to do that. Going through someone's code who's probably not a professional programmer can be a real pain in the ass.
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We had this discussion a month ago @NR.
His model is old shit and was used to justify bad policy.
You can ride your high horse and moralize all you want and where is your Niall?
He quit because he got caught breaking his OWN social distancing rules by having his married lover come across London to get some Niall dick, lol. She works for Avaaz, founded and supported by Moveon.org and SEIU.....which is all you need to know about her. Did anybody see Niall screaming NOT to use his worst case model? NO, because it didn't happen. He was fine with it.
This is what OUR media used as a cudgel to batter all of us into going along with the program.
The worst part is NONE of you care in the least about the millions of poor people who've lost their jobs and will die from some other ailment. Or, the millions NOT getting elective surgeries, the mental illness, child abuse, etc etc. Your worthless models have nothing to say about any of that.
Models are useful as one piece of a complicated puzzle but should not be used as the sole source of social policy.
Since some of you are so worried about people dying, why not kill a multi-trillion dollar economy to fix:
Influenza. 59,000 dead in 2018
Diabetes. 85,000 dead in 2018
Chronic lower respiratory diseases 160,000 dead in 2018
Sepsis. 250,000 average dead per year
There's more, pick your favorite. Lots to choose from, many more deadly than CV19.
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@NR
The point is he doesn't know what's in the code! From the OPs article.
"Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus."
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A few points:
Diabetes, chronic lower respiratory diseases, car deaths, and sepsis work differently than COVID-19. If the same methods used to prevent COVID-19 would work for these, we would try it that way.
To say that we don't care about the impact lockdowns have on the economy is simply not true. A 3-month lockdown to reduce case numbers to low, and then a slow reopening of the economy, with a large testing, contact tracing, and quarantining system in place was the goal of top scientists such as Anthony Fauci. Unfortunately, we're opening up too soon to get the number of cases low. We'll have to see what the ramifications of that is.
Professor Neil Ferguson was just one voice among many, many epidemiologists that called for strong policy measures to deal with COVID-19.
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On a lighter note, I will say Ferguson's squeeze is really cute.
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"The point is he doesn't know what's in the code! From the OPs article.
'Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus.'"
If I don't document every step of code, I'm not going to remember what it does six months after I write it! However, I will know from previous use and testing that it does what it is supposed to do.
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Captain
Hai Mr. Phalange!
U@Louis!
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"Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code last week, after a six-week delay."
Isn't this somehow close to peer review? When I was writing programs and even today with Agile and methodologies there are Code reviews to ensure that Code does what is expected. How can you know for certain that your science and assumptions are correct without the validation of peers? Being a highly regarded genius doesn't make one infallible. For all the crap certain Dr.s have taken for prescribing HCQ some of them highly regarded in their own right we seem to be picking and choosing who we trust in a pretty whimsical fashion.
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@NR - Searched for Antonia Staats. In some photos I'd say you are correct kinda cute in others not at all.
Kinda like that southpark episode about social media and the use of filters making someone look like a totally different person (not entirely the case here).
Definitely not worth risking career and/or family over at all.
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Tango....
I’m not saying anything except it seems people with agendas created models that coincidentally supported outcomes for which they were in favor of for other reasons.
I am not a virologist. I am not an economist. I am not an expert on labor forces. I am limited to the information I read and watch.
I don’t know any of the answers.... but I have a shitload of questions.
Let’s start here...
What’s the value of 500,000 lives? 20 million jobs?
100,000 lives?
1,000 lives?
100?
10?
1?
Would you (this means anyone reading) shut down your business for 3 months, risk bankruptcy and financial ruin to give your grandfather 5 more years?
What about your mother?
I don’t know how to figure that math.
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My Mother, yes. Absolutely. No lie.
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KS, it’s a false choice you present. Exhibit A:
Will Sweden's strategy work to grow its economy? The forecasters at the European Commission appear not to think so.
Deaths so far per 1 million population:
Sweden: 314
Denmark: 90
Finland: 47
Commission forecast for growth in 2020:
Sweden: -6.1%
Denmark: -3.9%
Finland: -5.3%
Main point: There was no way to avoid a bad economic downturn once the virus was heading our way.
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And a shutdown EU would explain some of but not all of the Swedish drop.
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"I’m not saying anything except it seems people with agendas created models that coincidentally supported outcomes for which they were in favor of for other reasons."
BINGO, nailed it. Still happening.
"The forecasters at the European Commission appear not to think so."
Of course, they must be right, those expert forecasters at the EC
No political agenda there. ).gif)
"Main point: There was no way to avoid a bad economic downturn once the virus was heading our way."
Yeah, and there's probably no difference between a 5% contraction for a year and a 25% contraction for 2 or 3. Let's just stay closed until there are no more Covid deaths...ever. Every life is precious, don't you know and even 1 is too many plus the government can just print the money while we eat chito's and watch the game we can't attend.
Fisher, you're very facile with your bullshit.
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And you’re hyperbole is crap, GoBsllsDeep. I’m talking about 5 months of doing nothing vs 3 months of lockdown followed by expansive contact tracing, testing, and quarantining. If people are confident they won’t get sick, the economy would recover faster. You took 5% vs 20% out of your ass.
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GoBallsToSleep, the problem with you is you believe what you want to believe. No facts or rational thought. Period. Just argue for your cause whatever it takes.
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Had the exact same thought about you except you also wear blinders and have bad judgement as evidenced by your history. Kinda the Niall of HX, lol
You're the typical Woodrow Wilson progressive type. Only experts, and I'm one of them, can possibly guide the rest of you uneducated hobos thru life. So, pay attention. And, have no doubt about my infallability......hey, I got models!
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Damn, Fisher, look in the mirror.
You're a lonely model geek trying to redeem your ugly past by pretending to be an expert at pandemic social policy on an anonymous social media site, lol. Other than a mea culpa plus a high cost crying jag over your charitable activities, what have you to show for yourself?
At least I'm honest with myself, I'm just here to pop the ego balloons of posers like yourself and battle the evils of far left/right politics.......and have a little fun.
A little less angst, emo, and bullshit, even you might have some fun. Try it!
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How is it a false choice?
My intention with the question was PERSONAL VALUE.
Many Americans.... “hmmm... if I shut down my business for 3 months, it could save 5,000 lives. Fuck that! I just bought a boat and my SO wants new headlights. AND at least half of the dead will be geezers at the old folk’s hospital. They were on their way out anyway.”
Or
If I don’t shut down my business, Nana (who still cuts the crust off of my peanut butter and jelly sandwiches for me) won’t be able to breathe, will go into the hospital and die a terrible and lonely death. OK... I’ll shut down.”
If you were wheezing and gasping for every breath... I could live with that if it means I could keep my 827 credit score.
For my mom... I could let it drop to say.... 755.
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^ you must have Orange hair!
Bad man kills Mom for better Fico Score
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Slightly off-topic, but an interesting thought experiment:
The Mandarin Paradox, posed by the French writer Chateaubriand in 1802
"I ask my own heart, I put to myself this question: 'If thou couldst by a mere wish kill a fellow-creature in China, and inherit his fortune in Europe, with the supernatural conviction that the fact would never be known, wouldst thou consent to form such a wish?'"
Basically, you could somehow gain a great fortune, at the expense of some random person elsewhere in the world dying as a result of your wish. Would you do so?
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Tough question, i got nothing but a likely NO, lol
Just posting to give Fisher something to chew on:
Unintended consequences of your prolonged shutdown.
The WellBeing Trust, a national foundation focused on mental health, and the Robert Graham Center, a research group put out some numbers on possible suicides and overdoses due to isolation and non-work. That number is 75,000 right now and will likely go higher. That's almost as many as have died from the virus to date. But, don't worry, the health authorities will mark them all down as CV19 victims.
That is just one small part that your models do not take into account. That's why scientists should inform but NOT make social policy.
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Rather than paraphrase all the info here, this link is a good approach
It's called "Crisis reminds us why we can’t simply trust ‘experts’"
We should not ignore serious experts with valuable information but we should not blindly accept everything they tell us. They can be and often are wrong or biased for many reasons.
shhhh, don't tell Fisher though
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"Unintended consequences of your prolonged shutdown.
The WellBeing Trust, a national foundation focused on mental health, and the Robert Graham Center, a research group put out some numbers on possible suicides and overdoses due to isolation and non-work. That number is 75,000 right now and will likely go higher. That's almost as many as have died from the virus to date. But, don't worry, the health authorities will mark them all down as CV19 victims."
So you're going to post this as "evidence" because it fits your agenda, now. Amirite?
What would the mental health toll have been if we had done nothing for 5 months and watch thousands of people die every day? People needing hospitalizations for mental health reasons wouldn't be able to access them because they would have been swamped. Food supply chains disrupted because too many workers who work closely together getting very sick all at once.
It's a FALSE choice to assume we would have been ok, mental health wise and economically with letting the virus wash over us.
Blame THE VIRUS not the experts.
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I simply bring the info forth, I knew that you'd have your expert opinion.......which could be wrong
that's all, it's just info to allow members to make a judgement based on info other than just your opinion.
Don't be angry that it doesn't fit YOUR AGENDA
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