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City of Irvine announced that any resident of the city will be able to get a Covid test at the Great Park. Have not heard the date when it will start.
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Cool!
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Free to the resident, apparently the City will pay for this
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And who funds the city?
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Never should have been in groups at the beach. Lmaooo
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It seems maybe the number of new cases per day has been lower the last few days, but the number of cases hospitalized and in ICU has been steadily increasing
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Balboa Island shops opened up this last weekend. It looked like a regular weekend, fairly crowded and very few wearing masks. And they have a big senior population.
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I'm not sure why some people pick a metric and hang there hat on that single metric.
In your case, the new cases/tests run is a terrible metric.
Before we even get into that, based on numbers from 5/5/2020- 5/12/2020 I get a case positivity rate of 7%, higher than your graph significantly. Not sure why that is, but seems like your numbers may be wrong.
Secondly, your denominator (tests run) included people who have tested positive and are getting a repeat test. This would act to falsely increase the denominator, and the total of number of repeat tests will increase over time, exerting an increased downward pressure on your metric.
Finally, as you have mentioned, testing parameters change. In the OC, there are situations where people with a negative test and being tested again to ensure it is negative. This situation did not exist 10 days ago and would also serve to reduce your metric falsely.
That's not to say that COVID19 in the OC is not bad, but just that there are better metrics to use than cases/tests.
I personally like to look at overall death rates (i.e. [deaths in april 2020] - [deaths in april 2019]/population). The problem with this is that it is slow to get this information.
Another good tracking tool is number of hospitalizations and ICU beds. This is still trending up. I'm hoping that plateaus, but given that we are easing social distancing I expect it to continue to head up.
And in the end you should remember that it doesn't really matter unless 1) you are over 60 and/or 2) you are obese and/or 3) you have asthma or diabetes and/or 4) you actually give a shit about other people.
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the CMO of LA county just said she wants to see all of socal locked down for the next 3 months. wtf!!!!
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"Before we even get into that, based on numbers from 5/5/2020- 5/12/2020 I get a case positivity rate of 7%, higher than your graph significantly. Not sure why that is, but seems like your numbers may be wrong."
I did a 7 day moving average and left off the last few days because it takes some time for all the tests to be reported.
"Secondly, your denominator (tests run) included people who have tested positive and are getting a repeat test. This would act to falsely increase the denominator, and the total of number of repeat tests will increase over time, exerting an increased downward pressure on your metric."
True, the data isn't perfect, but is this happening often enough to change the very obvious and large qualitative result I'm getting? New cases have been steadily going down since the middle of April.
"Finally, as you have mentioned, testing parameters change. In the OC, there are situations where people with a negative test and being tested again to ensure it is negative. This situation did not exist 10 days ago and would also serve to reduce your metric falsely."
Same. How often has this been happening, and would it change the clear obvious qualitative result I'm getting?
"I personally like to look at overall death rates (i.e. [deaths in april 2020] - [deaths in april 2019]/population). The problem with this is that it is slow to get this information."
"Another good tracking tool is number of hospitalizations and ICU beds. This is still trending up. I'm hoping that plateaus, but given that we are easing social distancing I expect it to continue to head up."
The problem with these metrics is that they very unevenly distributed through the community. A significant number of upticks from deaths and hospitalizations are due to what's been going on recently in nursing homes. The new cases metric would give a more balanced view of what is going on the OC, aside from randomly testing people in the community.
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I'm looking at deaths in OC right now. It's a terrible metric. The range is from 2-5 and the numbers are so low, that stochasticity plays a large part here in what's going on.
The truth is, the data simply sucks anyway you look at it.
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LOL...
You must be a lawyer...sticking to your points despite evidence to the contrary.
But to be direct, yes, I think your metric is flawed and the general trend downward can be explained by features other than what you ascribe it to.
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Someone who might know a thing or two about how the data is collected and the vulnerabilities associated with it is Orange County Health Officer Dr. Nichole Quick. According to the LA Times on May 11, she said "that the percentage of people [in OC] who are tested and come back positive 'has remained relatively stable and, overall, has been decreasing, which is good.'" So she observed the trend I'm seeing as well and believes it to be real, despite any of the potential flaws associated with collecting the data.
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While small shops and other public facing business's and facilities trying to reopen is a good thing. It means jack shit for the live events industry.
How long before folks are comfortable attending a concert or convention?
We are still out of work. If this continues on I might have to jump ship to a different company as I can land anywhere (Systems Administrator) but I REALLY like the place I'm at and the industry we are in.
I have even heard that they might never return, so I guess bulldoze all the arenas, stadiums and convention centers?
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@Zeros
It'll all come back, people are social creatures. All the worst of epidemics and pandemics in human history hasn't nixed gatherings for sports, music etc for very long.
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Hey Zeros are you in the live entertainment industry as in setting up concerts, festivals or maybe even corporate events? Sounds like it from your post.
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| There are 16 comments on this blog. |
