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Damn. I just read the study was from the middle of April, even though it was just published, so this analysis is flawed. I'm going to delete this blog.
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Here’s an article dated May 13, 2020 following up on contact tracing of one an asymptomatic Covid 19 patient with 455 separate contacts. Of the 455 contacts, zero tested positive for the disease.
This was article was posted by an agency of the US government.
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One anecdotal example doesn't negate the importance of contact tracing. It is hard work but necessary if we want to open things up and keep new cases low.
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Sorry. Forgot the link! 😝😝😝
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This is actually good news in that asymptomatic carriers may only be weak transmitters.
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->ANECDOTAL<-->ANECDOTAL<- Disregard dont mean shit doesn't fit the narrative ANECDOTAL<-->ANECDOTAL<- Disregard dont mean shit doesn't fit the narrative
And in others news ....Trump farted... Can you believe the nerve of that guy?
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I have no narrative. I'm data driven. Contact tracing works in countries like South Korea. That is why they can open up despite concerns about a second wave.
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I could clearly understand why you don't like lockdowns, but you're neither for lockdowns or testing/contact tracing? What options do you have left except let the virus just take its time and wreak havoc across the country? Spatial separation will only work for a time, but if you let the virus linger, don't you think that it's going to no longer matter as much if communities are dense or sparse?
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That's actually an interesting research question.
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How do you underestimate fatalities. If theres 2000 deaths that's the one solid peice of info.
The infection rate is a total WAG and is merely academic. Not worth busting the economy to find out.
I bet 1200 of those people are over 60 years.
Why the fuck are we still locked down?
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I got no problem with your number crunching. Knock yourself out but what you are going to come up with after all this is rated of spread in one community is totally different than others. If you are only concerned about LA and OC ok keeping track might serve an immediate purpose and be informational to the community. But I e yet to hear or read anything that makes me feel that anyone knows WTF is happening or going to happen. I dont think we will understand this next year and maybe not 5 years from now.
It's a HEAD SCRATCHER
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Btw I haven't expressed an opinion on lockdowns at all. I'm all for social distancing. I believe lockdowns were necessary. I also believe that we have gone too far that the first month was probably just the right amount 45 days just to be safe. But now we are in ... I'm keeping you locked down cus .... cus.... I dont know why just because I say so!!! That what our leaders are like. Even Fauci changes his mind as often as a wethervane.
But ooh not you my friend you are solid!! we just disagree about a few things and that's fine.
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Worthless, useless info...Again!
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"Not the 1-5% people were worried about"
That was YOU, @NR. Not just people, that was YOU at 3-4%.
10 times your new made up likely rate of .4%
Since that's higher than the flu and you're a caring humanitarian, you recommended we destroy the economy and now recommend we do something that will be unlikely to ever happen here, contact trace? There are better outcomes that caused much less damage than your suggested policy.
Forgive me if I don't pay attention to your models and quietly change to the Cartoon channel, where things have more basis in reality. I get that you're doing your best to inform and be cautious but you're the MSNBC of HX
.
If you really cared, you should have recommended spending 1/100th of what we just lost in the shutdown, on securing the impaired susceptible population in nursing homes and let the rest of us go about our business. That alone would have saved HALF of our dead Americans.
SMDH at the arrogance and pathological recidivism
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I dont fault NR for crunching his numbers and even posting them here. It's something he is interested in does for a living and probably good at given all known parameters.
In the US we have published numbers that are including presumptive positives based upon flawed testing in the beginning that haven't been re-factored with what we know now, we have deaths attributed to the virus that have nothing to do with the virus running its course, we have infection rates accelerated in nursing homes because of irresponsible mandates from people who claim to be "Following the science".
My thinking is all these factors amount to a not so funny comedy of errors that have wrecked untold numbers of people's lives not just here in the US but all over the world. This doesn't even bring in to account the Dr. In Englands algorithm that has not been proofed by anyone other than himself.
NR is just a guy doing what he does and hoping it's for the best. It's all good.
The following is not directed at NR but all the people who think we'd be better off if only someone else was President.
When opinion about something overrides reality of circumstances, saying someone could do it better than the present guy well that's just not true, someone else's statements about concern over the virus tells us that we'd probably be in worse circumstances than we are now.
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The attached CDC analysis details that their best current estimate of case fatality ratio is 0.004 or as a percent 0.4%. The report details other estimates based on age and four other scenarios. All based on data received prior to 4/29/20. They also report case hospitalization ratios and a wealth or other interesting data.
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Here's an update to my analysis of the positivity (symptomatic new cases/tests) in Orange County I have been doing. The ratio was going down until about May 8th (which is around the time non-essential businesses started to open in the OC). Now it's going up again.
New cases are definitely on the rise in Orange County.
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Interesting facts in LA county Latinos have almost 3 times more infections than any other ethnic group.
The infection hot spot cities are Long Beach, Pasadena and Glendale.
All most the same number of infections just slightly less in age groups18-40 as in age groups 41-65.
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Fatality per age group is what matters. Getting infected can happen to anyone exposed.
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New cases on the rise, could that be due to increased testing?
What are the parameters for a positive result making it into the database? If not by a clear test result, then how? If by test result, then increased testing could be a factor in reported increase on stats.
I don't fault NR for presenting numbers for all to use.
It's the op-ed that goes with, that i have a problem with.
Science isn't as black and white as some would have us believe. It is a method for evaluating the best known data, not a mantra. It changes as more is learned and new data arrives. Statistical forecasts are speculative and often wrong. We all have to weigh the non-scientific concerns with the scientific information rather than just blindly follow what certain select scientists say.
To that end, just watch Nuisance dance around trying to stay ahead of the parade as the "science" changes. Never could figure out why they call it "political science" 
Don't doubt it, there will be increases in certain areas whether you open or don't open. Again, i refer to Cuomo's comment on May 6th that 66% of new cases came from people who had quarantined at home. Put that in your science and tell me what you get.
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I'm waiting for the cartoon with mayor Garcetti telling the city residents that
the shutdown is over and there is no response. Just pictures of closed businesses
and empty streets and dead bodies. But plenty of homeless people looking
at the mayor as if nothing had happened.
That would be a great cartoon! 
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No one can estimate how many lives were saved with the shutdown in LA county. However
early estimates of deaths due to the virus was about 1 million in the U.S. or .3% of the U.S population of 330 million.
If you apply those stats to LA county, then about 12,000 people were save due to the
shutdown since LA county's population is about 4 million. (.3% of 4 million)
Eventually the cost of the shutdown to LA county will be estimated and that
cost will be staggering. What a price to pay to save 12,000 lives.
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The virus has been hitting hard in more dense low income areas. In some urban areas blacks make up to 30% of the deaths. Not all are old by any means. P
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Not in LA county the black population has the fewest deaths of any of the major ethnic group.
Latins have the overall most infections and the most deaths by a wide margin.
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No, the metric I used was positive cases divided by the number of tests, in order to cancel out the effect increased testing would have in producing more positive tests. Even after factoring our tests, I find the number of cases is increasing.
The data aren’t perfect. For example, how do we know that a test from one day corresponds with a positive case from one day? You don’t, but the correlation between positive cases and number of tests was pretty high (0.6), so they are clearly linked date-wise.
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*out
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"What a price to pay to save 12,000 lives"
How much $$$ could taxpayers save from closing down all police and fire departments?
That would cost < 12k lives
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ON Average Half of the deaths have occured in Nursing homes sadly.
And people over age 80.
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@GinaGalaxy, and yet the state and local officials in CA want
to keep the young and healthy at home and keeping them from
their businesses and jobs. They are destroying their own source of revenue
and then want a bailout from the federal govt.
Who is actually being saved? Old people who are retired and/or disabled
and no longer are able to make any contribution to society.
Many medical professionals are saying that the shutdown is causing
a lot of health problems and the shutdown needs to end now.
The cure seems worse than the virus.
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Trump just imposed a travel ban on Brazil.
Brazil and Russia have almost the very same number of virus cases.
Why no ban on Russia?.........theres a trend here,
"The country has recorded 353,481 coronavirus cases and is the third-worst hit country in its total number of coronavirus cases slightly behind Brazil 365,000 and the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University."
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Cause Brazilian Collusion just don't have the same ring, Doofy.
You're such a broken record, topic is rising test results in LA County and you make it about Trump Russia Collusion. Most are tired of your lying and crying, so give it a rest.
"I have no narrative. I'm data driven."
That's not really true, is it NR?
You've always given us your interpretation of the data.
Misery, misfortune, lonely, these are scientific terms?
Provide the data and science based construct, great!
Allow us the ability to derive our conclusions without the gloomy narrative.
Thank you
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I call bullshit on the number of the deaths being low. The idea that someone died of it and cause of death was erroneously attributed to something else is effectively nil in this environment. Conversely, we know they have been over exuberant in attributing death to the virus if it was present. Under pressure from doctors, coroners and next of kin, these numbers have been quietly revised DOWNWARD while everyday we find out out that significantly more people have had it without even knowing. The fatality rate is clearly below 1%. It seems highly contagious from person to person contact but the CDC has been walking back prior concerns about how long it stays on surfaces and can be transmitted that way.
Meanwhile, the devastating effect of quarantine on the economy is clear and massive. More and more experts are becoming more concerned about poverty, famine, suicide and other deadly diseases not being diagnosed in a timely manner. Think about it...every day people go to the doctor and find out they have cancer or diabtes or heart disease...just in time to do something about it. Now, people are not going to doctors for regular checkups. People with other conditions are having a hard time getting treatment. Many specialist are not taking new patients.
This isn't about haircuts...
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