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Well it's easier to armchair this now, but we are still learning about the virus.
Early models, and China, fucked us from the get!
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After all the bullshit of the past three years ... I'm not prone to give credence to any leaked government report. ANY media that is not citing a source and providing corroborating evidence in my opinion is doing a great disservice to the population and their profession.
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FAKE NEWS!
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/strategic-culture-foundation/
strategic-culture.org is registered and hosted in Russia. Look it up on https://lookup.icann.org/lookup
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COVID deaths started happening mostly around early March, so right now, we are at about 3 months in, or a quarter of a year.
I see we have 390,000 deaths and not 250,000, and more importantly this is the result AFTER several lockdowns and stay at home orders throughout the world, so it's not fair to compare these deaths to the deaths of a regular flu season which happened without a lockdown in place.
Because the number of deaths are comparable, but the COVID deaths happened with lockdowns, and the influenza deaths happened without lockdowns.
It would have been so much worse had we not locked down.
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Fake news or not the OP may actually be on to something. And that is that 40% of the deaths are from elderly people who were already sick and may have died during this year anyway. I say this because I had an aunt who passed during the lock down. She was in her early 90's and was suffering from congestive heart failure. She passed in her sleep at home. No symptoms associated with Covid19 yet they listed her as a Covid death. How many other deaths of elderly people in nursing homes has been incorrectly counted as a Covid death? Is it enough to significantly change the total deaths by Covid number?
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^
Anecdotal.
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Well no more pandemic right? Social distancing isn't happening with the protests. Stats in the US do show that it's mainly the very elderly dying.
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Source has been discredited. Why even bother discussing?
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https://www.strategic-culture.org/ HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAA... what a mook
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Stats and analysis are in.
https://youtu.be/J1s-4k9f0dk
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Smh Mr.Billy blogging 🤦🏻♂️
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I don't speak German, but there seems to be a lot more in that 93-page report that those few points. I'm sure there is more nuance here than posted by that source.
I'm sure we will look back on the pandemic with 20-20 hindsight and say that lockdowns in certain areas of the country may not have been necessary; social distancing and mask wearing may have been enough. But that's hindsight. We assumed worst case scenario and went from there when we locked down. It seemed reasonable at the time.
Having said that, we are still at the end of the beginning of this pandemic. We really don't know the effect opening up and these protests are going to have. We may see a second wave; we may see nothing except a few breakouts in certain areas that get contained. The more I study this, the less sure I am about anything. Too little is known about other factors that go into the dynamics of the pandemic, such as 1. the network of contacts people have that lead to the spread of the illness and 2. random effects.
Which is to say, it's too early to say the pandemic was a joke. We'll have to wait and see. I am worried though that the country isn't united in trying to see this thing through to the very end. We are at war with a virus, not each other.
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Most, not all, deaths from CV19 were comorbid cases. In one study, 98% had 2 or more major impairments.
If you measure "excess" deaths, the number of deaths in excess of the normal amount during a given time frame, you find the following if you live outside of NYC:
If you're relatively healthy, your chance of being an extra death is about 1 in 5,000. That's slightly higher than being killed in an auto accident.
If you're healthy and under 50, your risk is 1 in 50,000. About the same as dying in a fire.
In NYC, those same risks were 1 in 300 and 1 in 3,000.
NYC generated 30% of the excess deaths in the country. I don't defend the many mistakes that Trump has made but the excess in NYC can be directly traced to Cuomo, de Blasio and the New York Health Dept. The order to send infected CV19 cases back to nursing homes killed 15,000 people and counting.
That would make Cuomo the greatest serial killer in US history....by far.
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With all the protesting and looting going on, there should be lots of sick
and dying people from the virus in the next week or so.
But I seriously doubt it.
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Progressives remind me of Sgt Schultz
"Colonel Hogan, I see nothing, I hear nothing"
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The bad news is that hospitalizations in the OC have been going up pretty linearly since late March. The rate didn't seem to increase as OC opened up; they kept on going up about the same.
The good news is that although they've reached a high spot, they are starting to plateauing right now (see graph), which is interesting considering we've been opening things up.
We'll see how the protests affect this curve over the next few weeks.
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*plateau
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Wow, not even the so called experts understand the transmissability or morbidity of this virus.
They err on the safe side but they don't actually know for certain if masks or social distancing even matters. Was there a double blind study being run of mask vs. no mask under same conditions that we're all unaware of? According to HX experts, thats the only way to know for sure, right?
All we know for certain is that somewhere around 45% of deaths occur in the elderly with, at least, 1 or more impairrments, diabetes, heart disease, etc.
Subtract 50,000 deaths from the total and what have you got left? Flu season? Sure glad we destroyed the economy so we could feel good about ourselves!
Oh, @NR, may I assume that you've followed developments on the 96,000 case Lancet study re HCQ?
Turns out both the data AND methodology were very questionable and may essentially be worthless.
Why can't even formerly respected journals like The Lancet publish without political bias?
Can we not get to the science without giving a shit what Trump says or does?
SMDH
In case you all missed it in the excitement, Rod Rosenstein self-immolated today. If he hadn't, he would be on his way to prison. Yeah, some people may be going to prison....finally.
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Snippet from
Wall Street Journal
The Measure of New York's Coronavirus Devastation
Raw numbers don't tell the whole story. A new study looks at 'excess deaths.'
By Robert Rosenkranz
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Compounding the error, the New York State Department of Health ordered the transfer of some 4,300 Covid-19 patients from hospitals to nursing homes. This exposed the oldest, frailest and most vulnerable to the virus.
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Here's the good news: If you're an average American living outside New York City, the epidemic was a period with barely noticeable increased risk. Your chance of being an extra fatality was about 1 in 5,000, somewhat higher than your chance of dying in an auto accident in a year. And if you were under 50 with no serious health conditions, your risk was in the ballpark of 1 in 50,000, similar to your risk of dying in a fire. In New York, those odds were approximately 1 in 300 and 1 in 3,000, respectively.
...
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