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The study is flawed. It doesn’t consider other factors such as population density that would have a large effect on many countries’ growth rate but not as much Sweden. South Korea also is a country that did a marvelous job at testing and contact tracing as a substitute for lockdowns and business closures. I doubt we would have been willing to do that.
There are other papers out there that come to different conclusions, but you apparently cherry picked the one that fits with your agenda.
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Here’s one from Science magazine from December that shows that school closures, business closures, and limiting gathering to 10 people or less had a tremendous impact.
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You cherry pick as well....so I am just getting into the swing of what news media do all the time.
Pick one that suits your narrative. Maybe you should contact those intelligent researchers at Stanford and tell them they are flawed....
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Closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably.
The additional effect of stay-at-home orders was comparatively small.
This is what YOUR study stated. Looks like stay at home orders are flawed also.....
And there are lots of studies that dispute the need for shutting down schools. So pick your study, but please be willing to open your mind and understand there is LOTS of science out there and you are not the end all be all expect and saying the study is flawed...we all can find issues with a research paper.
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The data that reflects shutting down schools isn't needed are usually gathered when transmission is relatively low, not when transmission is high.
And your great Stanford study was so great that it was published in a second-rate journal. Not their greatest work.
Stay at home orders may have smaller effect, but they have an effect which may be necessary to help flatten the curve when your hospitals are getting overwhelmed.
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Good review of OP's paper.
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Not sure about Iran, but all those other countries provided stimulus packages of some sort
maybe that’s a big reason why?
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The only business I hope fails is yours jazz !
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The only business I hope fails is yours jazz !
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Oh and you're welcome.
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Very simple. The paper isn't about science. It's about social behavior.
For science, physics and biology dictate that the more restrictive the lockdown, the less is the increase in cases. There's no way around it.
The problem is that you can't really implement restrictive lockdowns in free countries. Trump's mass rallies don't lock anything down. Driving through Huntington Beach and Newport Beach, it's business as usual. All the bikini cafes are open; you just need to use the backdoor. And nobody enforces anything in OC.
I'm certain the very restrictive lockdowns in China are very effective. They stop selling train tickets and stop issusing permits and nobody can move. If you open you go to jail. If you walk on the streets you go to jail.
It wasted so much analysis when one word explains everything - jail.
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Even China is now getting a spike, lol
Many experts, including Fauci, admitted that "test and trace" wouldn't work in this country but did so quietly. Covid spreads more easily than the flu and an overwhelming share of cases are aymptomatic and indistinguishable from ailments that Americans suffer every day. In country as big and unruly as ours, this meant that there was zero chance of catching and isolating enough spreaders to matter. Of course, this could have been solved by simply hiring NR as consultant, lol.
All of these folks were smart enough not to get between the media and Its imperative that every misfortune be played as a failure of inadequate government.
As the spike around the globe unfortunately showed.....masks, social distance and lockdowns are no match for this pesky little bug.....unless you're an island or a totalitarian government
Or, possibly you could hire NR
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The effects near here?
IHOP
Thai Joint
Bar & Grill
Closed for good.
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"Many experts, including Fauci, admitted that "test and trace" wouldn't work in this country but did so quietly. Covid spreads more easily than the flu and an overwhelming share of cases are aymptomatic and indistinguishable from ailments that Americans suffer every day. In country as big and unruly as ours, this meant that there was zero chance of catching and isolating enough spreaders to matter. Of course, this could have been solved by simply hiring NR as consultant, lol."
Very wrong. America, if they had had the proper leadership, could have developed and used COVID-19 paper antigen tests which are cheap and fast to process. They could have had students in schools use them and at businesses. You could test twice or three times a week. If you end up testing tens of millions of people a day, you could catch many, many asymptomatic cases and pay for them to stay home until they recover. To combat false positives, you could test twice. As shown in Liverpool and Slovakia, testing works. In fact, under the Biden administration, to open schools safely, they probably will use this procedure.
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"As the spike around the globe unfortunately showed.....masks, social distance and lockdowns are no match for this pesky little bug.....unless you're an island or a totalitarian government"
If people followed social distancing, masking, and refrained from staying indoors with others, we would have done a much better job against this "pesky little bug."
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Like I said
If we had eggs
We could have bacon and eggs
If we had bacon
It would not have mattered one whit who was Pres of these United States of Disunity
And, I didn't vote for Trump and am not defending him
But, wouldn't it be nice if all us fallible humans could and would just live
In NR's perfect worid?
Frankly, I don't miss the Trump "noise"
Which included both him AND his detractors
But if you believe in the second coming of hopey-changey
I've got a vaccine to sell you
We've gone from a ghost pepper burger
To a nothing burger
Neither will sate the American appetite for long
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Do you ever actually read the shit you post, NR?
We coulda done this
And, we coulda done that
And, every student in every school coulda taken this cheap test
And, it all woulda been great
If wishes were fishes.....
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"In fact, under the Biden administration, to open schools safely, they probably will use this procedure."
Lastly, you are a true moron who understands nothing if you don't think we could have opened schools safely already. I know enough teachers to know it would've happened already if not for the CTA and NEA.
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OK, I can easily show you your thought bias and/or non-critical thinking and/or lazy for facts.
Like Wuhan. When they jail everybody at home the cases fall from thousands a day to less than a hundred. Spike means different things. Many Chinese cities have been back to normal. It just proves that if you lock down less, you get more cases or spikes.
Same thing in USA. We should have locked down more but instead, we tried to reopen.
China is the opposite of USA. Less restrictive lockdowns won't work. If there is no enforcement nobody will close anything.
"Testing AND tracking don't work." The problem is testing. Trump is very much against testing. He wanted everybody to ignore the virus so his hotel revenue didn't drop by half. Don't forget that he blames more testing for more cases. It had been hard to find a testing site, and until recently all are slow and expensive PCR tests. And because of Boolean logic, we cannot deduce whether tracking works or not. I don't bother turning on the tracking app because nobody I know was tested. If testing is easier and more popular, I have no reason not to turn the app on. And of course, we have anti-maskers; do you expect them to be tested and tracked?
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Here's someone who hasn't done their homework or even got their facts straight
China is building 4,000 units in Hebei to try again to stop the virus
Whoops, didn't they already do that lockdown thingy?
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GBD, you are repeating yourself. Many Chinese cities have been back to normal. Wuhan held mass concerts and showed the world about it. That just shows that restrictive lockdown works. What stops you from understanding?
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NC is open at 40% capacity and not heard a lot if issues lately but time will tell. I also have essent services license so I am grateful to not have gotten ill for past two years. Guess my native American,latin blood and spainard roots gave me some luck for once ! Or twice 🙂
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"Lastly, you are a true moron who understands nothing if you don't think we could have opened schools safely already. I know enough teachers to know it would've happened already if not for the CTA and NEA."
You're so wrong. Studies show that opening schools makes things much worse if transmission is already high, like it is.
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| There are 23 comments on this blog. |
