We are at a critical moment in the pandemic. We could go either way.
One set of experts thinks that we are done seeing exploding infection rates of COVID-19 and that the vaccinations will bring an end to the pandemic by October.
Another set of experts thinks that we are about to see a new wave of COVID-19 infections in March and that we will be back in lockdown in April.
Meet the California variant, B.1.427/B.1.429. B.1.427/B.1.429 is more transmissible, like the B.1.1.7 variant (UK), and it is more virulent, like the B.1.351 variant (South Africa). B.1.427/B.1.429 is spreading beneath the surface.
My guess is that the second set of experts is correct. Don't get too comfortable with things reopening. We'll be back in lockdown by April. Many more will die. To date Los Angeles County has had 20,000 deaths. We will have another 6,000 deaths by May.
There are 47 comments on this blog. This blog is locked and no further comments are permitted.
Um. Ok. Enough with the scare tactics. There is NO EVIDENCE from 'neutralization assays' that lineages B.1.427/B.1.429 either reduce efficacy of current vaccines or make reinfections more likely. They actually have been around a while, and while their highest frequency is in California (B.1429), they haven't shown anything exceptional in where they are distributed or in increases of frequency. They may have had increases in frequency due to random chance, not due to them having greater fitness. The LA Times article written about them is pure garbage quoting unpublished data.
Europe is possibly trending upwards again, perhaps due to the UK variant B.1.1.7. But there is no evidence at this time of a substantial new wave.
You only should worry about things if they present themselves. You shouldn't worry about things if they haven't happened yet. We KNOW the vaccines are great at protecting practically everyone from serious disease, hospitalization, and death. We KNOW that if a variant is presented that greatly reduces vaccine efficiency or that vastly increases the chance of reinfection, Pfizer or Moderna can quickly produce a new vaccine for that variant. (Moderna today just came out with a new vaccine for the South African variant B.1.351 that will be tested by the NIH).
There's no doubt in my mind we've been through the worst and can now see the light at the end of the tunnel.
A new variant out of New York is the one to watch. It contains the E484K that the South African and Brazilian variants have that seem to make them more evasive to immunity.
Definitely conflicted
Natural inclination would be to use Rawcranium disapproved wordplay
This is NR, after all
However, I'm in complete alignment with NR's analysis and recommendation
Therefore, I shall simply call Rawcranium a dumb ass and worst HX blogger
Then, I shall move on
Well played, NR
You've somehow posted in such a way that Rawcranium has taken the hit for the post.
Tres formidable
The lockdown is CA didn't work and and many red states have already moved
away from their temporary lockdowns. If there is another lockdown inspite of
the number of people getting vaccinations, the economy of CA will be
destroyed and many of our institutions will have been severely damaged..
According to many epidemiologists most people have survived all previous
pandemics. They develop herd immunity and move on with their lives.
A few epidemiologists have stated that we will reach herd immunity
by April. At this point only fools believe in continued lockdowns.
Exactly where is the evidence? What happened to the flu? Why are people that get hit by cars or drown or suicide gets marked as covid death 🤔 to much scare nort enough evidence. Like kaiser said I won't hold my breath🤣
Um....
perhaps the flu isn't spreading because people are taking covid precautions.
It's possible to kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
I'm going to ride with that.
I'm feeling like maybe it's not a cabal of satanists, but please- Draco tell us more, how was this masterplan organized and kept in secret.
Inquiring minds want to know.
Yes precautions are taken and need to continue, wear a mask stay in(limit the times you go out for supplies as much as you can) and wash your hands.
But to shut schools businesses and jobs and take people's jobs, not so much sense there.
Have Faith and Hope like it was said above there's brighter days ahead. Negativity and stress will just make you sick physically and mentally and in these times you need to be ahead of the game positive smart considerate and clean.
Hey Kandi Kat,
I'm with you, common sense.
Like - for example- my friends in Canada are locked down, but they aren't irrationally terrified of socialism.
You might call theirs a common sense approach.
Since they pay taxes - just like we do.
And since their government asked them to lock down- for health reasons - you might call this common sense.
but
They get support from the government to keep their businesses from closing - oops
It defies common sense to think of this as a handout - since
they paid into the system and they are now using those benefits.
The workers from those businesses are getting 600 a week to pay their bills.
however-
Common Sense would say, I should never have brought this up, because 18 people on these blogs are going to freak the fuck out.
Oh well.
There are probably multiple reasons why the flu isn't prevalent this year. First of all it's possible masks and social distancing have helped. But perhaps more importantly, like different COVID variants compete with each other in terms of viral spread, the flu virus and COVID virus may compete with each other as well. So with the large presence of COVID, it has likely outcompeted the flu virus.
This doesn't mean we won't see the flu ever again. It's still out there and maybe will be back in 2021-2022, but of course that would mean that COVID spread is very small, which is a good thing.
Flu is not prevalent this year because of travel restrictions and combined with all the social restrictions, it did not have the opportunity to spread out like before. Once travel restrictions are removed, flu will be a thing again. FYI....North America typically gets the flu from South American visitors because the flu moves back and forth between north/south equator, depending on time of year, as it thrives in cold weather.
Reality is, Covid-19 will never go away. We will eventually learn to live it, much like small pox, polio, common cold, flu, etc....
Due to the ease of transmission, like the common cold or flu, it will continue to evolve and mutate every month/week/year....rearing it's ugly head every so often. Pharma companies will be working on yearly "booster" shots for the folks who want it for pretty much forever. A new category will be added to the national death rate, and it will be Covid. It won't be 500K per year but it will be in the thousands, affecting mostly the weak and ill. There will be people with long term effects from Covid as well, that will require treatment/support.
Like I said before, we will eventually learn to live with it, because we will choose to continue to live life vs. waiting to die.
There are no "experts" on this topic. There are people who has a little more info on it than others. Much like what I stated above, everyone is simply taking a guess on what will happen next. All we have to go on is what we know about virology and history. There is no playbook or crystal ball on what the virus will do next.
"We will eventually learn to live it, much like small pox,"
I was digging your post til I saw this, lol
We don't live with smallpox
It was eradicated and there's only what's left in level 4 bio-containment.
In fact it was supposed to be destroyed but the CDC and the Russkies each kept some
OK, all you turds
Imagine Uncle Sam meets Ivan in Berlin and the war is over
That should be Dems and Reps partying like mofos pretty soon
This pandemic is almost over in the US
Can we not celebrate?
We can always commit social suicide later, right?
I can't think of a nicer group of people who should die than all of you
But, for now......let's have a beer and celebrate!
@GBD... I guess I should read the other posts for gems like "living with small pox"--you forgot China. UK and France *may* have access to it buried in a vault but I'm pretty sure that's tin foil hat factual.
@Calistyle. We didn't learn the live with it; we're aggressively trying to beat the fuck out of measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox and we're damn near close to putting Polio in the grave. So if learning to deal with it means killing the fuck out of eons old mass murdering diseases? Yeah then ok, we're "learning to live with it"
I didn't even mention the old smallpox Indian blanket I got in my safe deposit box, just in case you fuckers come for me.
I don't get you loopy twats who won't get a vaccine, lol.
Do you realize the world you live in was created by vaccines?
Without them, most of you would have already died from Cholera, Diptheria, Pertussis, Smallpox, Tetanus, Flu, Mumps, Typhoid Fever, Measles, Tuberculosis..........or be blogging from inside an Iron Lung cause you got you some Polio as a kid.
Many of you idjits probably think that vaccines cause autism, which was a deliberate fraud by a British doc, Andrew Wakefield......discredited and struck off the medical rolls.
Anyhoo, here's hoping you get taken out by a runaway cement truck just as a meteor shower strikes you dead. That's about the same probability as a vaccine problem. And, if it happens, that'll be one less member of the herd that we have to be concerned about.
Wear a mask (or 2).
Use hand sanitizer when you're out.
Keep hands away from face.
Wash hands frequently.
Avoid getting close to anyone who doesn't live in your house.
Get vaccinated as soon as possible
That is the battle plan, whether we have one variant or 50.
I know my answer is boring, but getting scared shitless doesn't help people.
It's a fucking stupid thing, whether left or right
The viral vector type already proved itself against Ebola
Now, J&J one shot will be used against Sars-Cov2
This is breakthru shit, knuckleheads
They been working on this since the '70's
Course, these medical types always think they've found the magic bullet
Mother nature is not so easily tamed though
This is Darwinian evolution at its finest, all the CoV19 variants that are being detected is due to the natural selection process and the more infectious strains will dominate. We are just lucky the prior research on the HIV pandemic and previous SARS, and MERS outbreaks were used to develop the current SARS-CoV2 mRNA vaccine, otherwise it would have taken years to develop a new vaccine from scratch.
This timeline of development is unpresedented, I bet we'll see the Nobel price given to Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J when this nightmare is over. The WHO and CDC have been vigilant for a pandemic like this since the 1970s.
" The WHO and CDC have been vigilant for a pandemic like this since the 1970s."
Almost vigilant
Bush Jr. spent over a billion trying to get these assholes teed up
They lost their way
Then Obama used all the supplies and didn't replace the stash
Then Trump did or didn't do whatever
Now,, State of CA wants to bring you Junior Medicare for all
Same guys that run the EDD, DMV, and train to nowhere, lol
What could go wrong?
There are 47 comments on this blog. This blog is locked and no further comments are permitted.
