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Jul 11 2020 05:16PM
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Masks Part 2: Trump wore a mask today!
At Walter Reed. Probably required.
But still, good job Donald J.!
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Jun 19 2020 05:48PM
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Frustrating
Why has this happened to us? The EU is beating the virus. We can't.
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Jun 18 2020 06:03PM
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Governor's order: People must wear a face mask in public spaces, with some exceptions, Part 2
From Deadline:
Specifically, Californians must wear masks in these circumstances:
-Inside of, or in line to enter, any indoor public space
-Waiting for or riding on public transportation
-Engaged in work, whether at the workplace or performing work off-site (with exceptions noted below)
-While outdoors in public spaces and less that 6 feet from others (exceptions below)
The following individuals are exempt from wearing a face covering:
-Persons with a medical, mental health, or developmental disability that prevents wearing a face covering
-Persons who are hearing impaired, or communicating with a person who is hearing impaired, where the ability to see the mouth is essential for communication
-Persons for whom wearing a face covering would create a risk to the person related to their work, as determined by local, state, or federal regulators or workplace safety guidelines
-Persons who are obtaining a service involving the nose or face for which temporary removal of the face covering is necessary to perform the service
-Persons who are seated at a restaurant or other establishment that offers food or beverage service, while they are eating or drinking, provided that they are able to maintain a distance of at least six feet away from persons who are not members of the same household or residence
-Persons who are engaged in outdoor work or recreation such as swimming, walking, hiking, bicycling, or running, when alone or with household members, and when they are able to maintain a distance of at least six feet from others
-Persons who are incarcerated. Prisons and jails, as part of their mitigation plans, will have specific guidance on the wearing of face coverings of masks for both inmates and staff.
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Jun 18 2020 02:48PM
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All Californians must wear face masks in public. Governor's order.
"Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday ordered all Californians to wear face coverings while in public or high-risk settings, including when shopping, taking public transit or seeking medical care, following growing concerns that an increase in coronavirus cases has been caused by residents failing to voluntarily take that precaution."
Just so you all know the new rule. Thank you.
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Jun 8 2020 05:37PM
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275,000 US lives saved by interventions to COVID-19 transmission, as of April 6
Policy changes led to an estimated 4,800,000 fewer COVID19 confirmed cases (and 60,000,000 fewer infections by the virus SARS-CoV-2) in the United States by April 6. If you divide today's cumulative deaths by confirmed cases and use that death rate, that means policy changes saved almost 275,000 lives by April 6.
To give perspective, we've lost 110,000 people in the US by today, June 8.
No telling (yet) how many more lives have been saved since April 6.
The story on the success of interventions to prevent an unmitigated disaster is starting to be written.
Check out the the attached paper from Nature.
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May 25 2020 10:14PM
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Another US hydroxychloroquine oberservational study
And another negative result.
We really need a large US clinical study, but it's getting to the point you can't ignore the overwhelming number of large US observational studies that were negative.
The VA Study, the two NY studies (from NE Journal of Medicine and JAMA), the Lancet study, and now this NJ study.
Meanwhile, Tocilizumab therapy showed some promise here.
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May 23 2020 07:31PM
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4-5% of LA County residents have had COVID-19.
The latest research suggests 4-5% of LA County have had COVID-19 (see article). That's about 500,000 people testing positive.
The number of deaths have been about 2,000. This is probably an underestimate.
So the death rate of COVID-19 in LA County is roughly 2,000/500,000 = 0.4%.
Death rates in other places have been recently calculated to be about 0.5%-0.6%, so this is about the same if you assume the number of deaths is a little bit underestimated.
Not the 1-5% people were worried about, but not the 0.1% that is generally associated with the flu either. Be safe out there! Social distance and wear a mask!
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May 11 2020 05:42PM
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Symptomatic cases of COVID-19 are still likely decreasing in Orange County, Part 2
Continued blog from before.
OC has been moving the testing data around, so I updated the chart. Unlike LA county, you need to have symptoms to get a COVID-19 test in OC. So, the decrease observed is not due to an influx of asymptomatic people that likely would bring the positivity ratio (of cases to tests) down.
I can't rule out that they are more flexible with testing anyone with any type of symptoms because they have more tests now.
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May 7 2020 07:54PM
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The "real" number of cases of COVID-19 is going down in Orange County
You're seeing the national news and even some scientists report that the number of cases of COVID-19 is going up. If you look at unedited data from many different states, you'll see either plateaus or recent increases in the number of cases. This is scary stuff, especially if we plan on opening things up. More cases means more deaths!!! Oboy!!!
The best metric you can use however is to look at the ratio of positive cases to number of tests. This will wash out any effect the unedited data has because the number of tests has been increasing.
So if you do this nationally, the ratio of positive tests to total tests has been decreasing slowly and steadily over the past few weeks. (See link #1). Good news! Take a breath!!!
I decided to examine this ratio using data from Orange County. Our positive cases divided by tests peaked in early to mid April, but now is steadily going down. (See attached plot). This trend was confirmed by IHME's own model for number of cases for the entire state of California. (See link #2).
So, it makes sense to slowly and sensibly open things up a bit and replace the lockdown with increased testing, contact tracing, and quarantining.
Take a breath people (like me)!!!! Don't worry so much!!! We'll get through this!!!!
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May 6 2020 05:00PM
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Don't give up on hydroxycholooquine yet...
The need for treatments against COVID-19 is great. We have one medicine, remdesivir, which, from a large clinical study, showed that it can reduce the number of sick days from 15 to 11. But one is not enough.
Hyroxychloroquine has been a mixed bad so far, in terms of the evidence. The original study that put it on the map was a French study that showed the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin significantly decrease the number of days people are sick with COVID-19. The main problem with the study, aside from not being randomized, was that four people who got sicker and went to the ICU were dropped from the hydroxychloroquine group, which affected the results.
The other positive study was from China which showed that hydroxychloroquine, when administered to moderately ill patients got better faster and were less likely to advance to the more severe form of the illness. The problem with the study was it was small.
Since then, American studies that have included the most severe cases of COVID-19 did not show that hydroxychloroquine is effective.
The other day, a moderately sized study showed that hydroxychloroquine increases the chance of survival in moderately sick patients with COVID-19. This study adds to the idea hydroxychloroquine may be useful still when administered to patients early, who aren't super sick yet.
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Apr 23 2020 12:46PM
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New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus
"With more than 19.4 million people residents, according to U.S. Census data, the preliminary results indicate that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19."
So what is the death rate then, based on this estimate?
11267 deaths in NY / 2,700,000 = approximately 0.4% death rate
Not the 7% or even 1% some people have been espousing, but definitely more than the typical flu.
So let's beat this epidemic we're having, then open things up cautiously. Hopefully, we can minimize deaths here in California by doing so.
46 comments
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Apr 15 2020 07:42PM
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Theory: COVID-19 started in a Chinese lab, not a market.
It seems more and more likely that the coronavirus came from a well-respected Chinese lab.
I can’t wait to read what nutty conspiracy theories you guys could possibly dream up about this!
My take: Chinese researchers were probably studying these coronaviruses that came from animals, and didn’t take enough precautions, and it infected someone, and he or she got out into the community.
OOPS!
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